All-time highs. Again.
Quick summary:
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After the Memorial Day weekend, SPY opened today over 750, reaching a new all-time high.
The daily chart is bullish with price above all key moving averages, RSI is in overbought territory (78–79) and volume is declining on up days, a combination that warrants caution. On the 4-hour chart, tech (the largest SPY sector) is showing early signs of fatigue at the top of a two-week range, with MACD momentum flattening.
Key levels to watch: resistance around all the all-time high zone (748-750) that turns into support; support at 725–730 and then 700 on a deeper move
A heavy macro week ahead: Consumer Confidence, FOMC Minutes, GDP revision, Jobless Claims, and PCE - any hot inflation reading could knock equities back from these elevated levels.
Before jumping in, I wanted to share an event that anyone interested in learning how to trade options can participate in.
The guys at SpotGamma are organizing a 3-day live bootcamp for anyone who wants to learn more about how option flows are leading the markets. I am recommending these guys in particular as I used their resources extensively about 5-6 years ago when I was learning about options trading and flows myself.
My education was first from textbooks (lame, I know), then with some live trading back in 2018 (on TSLA calls, got me hooked), then losing money, then educating myself much more using SpotGamma, Cem Karsan, VolSignals, SqueezeMetrics, OptionsDepth, etc., then losing some more money, and then finally figuring out risk management and my own psychological burdens, before we launched our Orca Bason Fund. The learning curve never stops. I still learn from mistakes, it’s just that they are not nearly as big as they were before.
Anyway, this is a cool bootcamp I recommend if you wanna get a good insight into how option flows actually work.
Ok, now onto our regular business.
Charts
SPY closed last Friday at 745.64, and opened today at 750 , a new all-time high. The recovery from April lows has been nothing short of remarkable - we’ve come all the way back from the 578 range, reclaimed the 200-day moving average (currently around 672–675), and now find ourselves in what is essentially uncharted territory once again. On the daily chart, the structure looks constructive: price is comfortably above the 50-day MA (around 688–689) and the 200-day MA, all moving averages are stacked in bullish order, and the MACD line remains above the signal line. However, the RSI has climbed to around 78–79, which is into overbought territory, and the 10-day RSI indicator moved out of overbought territory only recently, in mid-May - suggesting some internal pressure building beneath the surface. The price has now gained in 6 of the last 10 sessions, but volume has been declining on recent up days, which is worth noting as a potential early warning sign.
On the 4-hour chart, the picture is a bit more nuanced. The short-term trend has been bullish, but the pace of the move is slowing. Tech, the single biggest driver over the past two months, is showing a bearish engulfing on the 4-hour candle at the top of a two-week range, suggesting a potential return to the bottom of that range. Given that tech carries the heaviest weighting in SPY, this matters. The 4-hour MACD is still above zero, but momentum is flattening, and each successive push toward 748–749 has attracted sellers. The key scenario to watch: either price consolidates here, builds a base, and attempts a clean breakout above the all-time high with volume confirmation, or we see a pullback toward the 725–730 area, which has acted as a prior resistance-turned-support zone. A deeper move could bring 700 back into play, though there is no strong evidence of that yet.
The macro calendar this week is packed, and with markets closed yesterday for Memorial Day. Consumer Confidence and Durable Goods Orders are due today, FOMC Minutes drop Wednesday, the second estimate of Q1 GDP and Jobless Claims come Thursday, and the week closes with the PCE inflation print alongside Personal Income, Spending, Chicago PMI, and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday. PCE in particular will be closely watched, any upside surprise there could quickly reprice rate cut expectations and put pressure on equities just as they are testing all-time highs. The FOMC Minutes may also offer clues on how much patience the Fed still has. In short, this is not a week to be complacent. The technicals are extended, the macro risks are real, and the margin for error near all-time highs is always thinner than it looks.
The competition
SPY is knocking on the door of all-time highs again, but with RSI stretched, volume fading on up days, and a week full of macro landmines, from FOMC Minutes to PCE, this is exactly the kind of moment that separates the careful predictors from the overconfident ones. Watch those levels closely, because one surprise print could flip the script fast.
Stay focused and keep climbing the ranks!
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