Big week: FOMC & 5 Mag7 earnings
Brace for impact.
Quick summary:
The 5th week of the Q2 competition is up and running - click here to join the action.
A high-stakes week featuring the FOMC meeting on Wed, PCE data the next day, and 5 out of 7 Mag7 earnings. With tech sectors trading outside their weekly Bollinger Bands, the market is highly sensitive to sell the news catalysts.
SPY remains in a daily uptrend, holding above the 20-day (690) and 50-day (681) moving averages. However, an overbought RSI of 70.15 and flattening MACD suggest momentum is tiring.
The 4-hour trend shows a more volatile negative gamma environment. Watch for resistance at the 720 Call Wall; a failure to hold 710 could trigger a slide toward the 705 zone and the 700 Put Wall support.
The market is primed for either a breakout above 720 or a healthy correction if macro data or earnings fail to meet lofty expectations.
FOMC week and earnings
The upcoming week is a macro minefield that will either fuel the breakout or trigger a long-overdue reality check. We start with GOOGL and MSFT earnings today after close. Then, we have the Wednesday FOMC meeting, the final meeting in Powell’s 8 year term. The expectations are pretty much dead set:
No change in rates, it will be mostly about Powell’s tone. However probably not a mover of markets this week, that will still come down to earnings (read the Saturday post if you missed it).
Following the press conference, after market close we get META and AMZN, and then AAPL after the close on Thursday. Oh yeah, we also get the PCE inflation data on Thursday morning. Now these are more likely to move markets this week. Just like today, things selling off based the report that OpenAI has falled short of revenue and user targets (NVDA, MSFT, and AMD all selling off).
A piece of non-solicitated advice for non-experienced traders in weeks like this one: stay out or at least stay flat before the event.
If you haven’t yet had a chance to watch some of my YT videos on lessons from trading, now is a good time. This short is apt for the current week - stay flat before big events. But this one is also good and can be helpful in general:
Like, share, subscribe, obviously!
Charts
SPY continues its relentless march into record territory, closing Friday at a historic high of 714. From a technical perspective, the daily chart remains in a “Strong Buy” posture, with price action comfortably supported by the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (690 and 681 respectively). However, we are beginning to see signs of fatigue. While MACD remains positive, its momentum is starting to flatten, and the 14-day RSI has tipped into overbought territory at 70.15.
On the 4-hour trend, the structure is constructive but delicate; we are currently sitting in a negative gamma environment, which typically favors volatile, directional momentum over smooth mean reversion. The immediate Call Wall at 720 serves as the primary resistance ceiling, while a failure to hold the 710 level could shift the intraday character from a healthy pullback to a momentum selloff toward the 705 support zone.
The competition
The market is losing its rally momentum as the bulls face a show-me environment, with failed peace talks and the Strait of Hormuz blockade keeping oil prices stubbornly above $100.
As we dive into this week’s competition results, our top predictors had to filter out the noise of a high-stakes tech earnings season and a looming FOMC meeting to see if the current support levels will actually hold or just serve as another “lower high” trap
Stay focused and keep climbing the ranks!
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
…join the $32,000x competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($8000) and annual (3% of our GP’s profits) prize distributions:
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