Confirmation or bust.
Quick summary:
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Price remains near recent highs, with buyers stepping in on early weakness and keeping the broader structure intact.
The 695 area continues to act as the main decision point, where sustained acceptance would support continuation and repeated failure could keep price range-bound.
Holding above the prior consolidation zone around 686 keeps the current structure intact, while a move back below it would warrant caution.
We have some more earnings this week: AMD today, GOOGL tomorrow, and AMZN on Thursday.
Charts: holding near the highs
Price action showed early pressure, but sellers failed to gain traction and buyers stepped back in, keeping the market near the upper end of the recent range. The broader structure remains intact.
That keeps attention on whether this move can be sustained, or whether signs of fatigue begin to emerge near the highs.
So what matters from here?
Looking at the SPY 4-hour chart, price is trading above the prior consolidation area and back into the all-time-high zone. The 695 area remains the key reference level, having capped upside multiple times in recent weeks and continuing to act as the main decision point. Once again, if we successfully retest this area (could be today - meaning we touch 695 and then push back up), this is the set-up for a bullish move. Even the 4-hr momentum indicators would favor this: MACD is positive, and the 5-perid MA is again above the 20-period MA.
This is not the first test of this area. Previous attempts failed to confirm and were followed by pullbacks. Another failure would keep the current range.
Any risk to the upside case?
A sustained move back below 686 would signal a loss of momentum in this breakout attempt. In that case, attention shifts to whether that level can be reclaimed or begins to act as resistance again.
Macro data and earnings from the largest technology names (AMD, GOOGL, AMZN) later this week may also influence short-term price behavior. Outside of those names, individual company results are likely to remain secondary, with attention staying on how broader inputs interact with price at these levels.
The competition
As price holds near recent highs ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, the leaderboard is starting to show which approaches are gaining traction.
Stay focused and keep climbing the ranks!
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