Congratulations to Q2 winners!
Q3 competition is starting this week
Quick summary:
Congratulations to everyone who crushed it in Q2! Payments will go out this or next week.
Q3 is kicking off and the competition is wide open. If you haven’t before, it’s the perfect time to jump in - click here to join the action.
SPX surged 28% from April lows to hit 6,200, breaking all-time highs at the end of the quarter. NASDAQ led Q2 with a 12% gain; SPX followed at 7.5%, while bonds underperformed amid rising inflation pressures.
This week: Markets close early Thursday (1pm) and shut Friday due to July 4th; all eyes will be on Thursday’s jobs report and progress on Trump’s budget bill.
The competition
In a strong finish to Q2, the competition stayed heated right up to the last day. Big congrats to everyone who made it onto the leaderboard—and a special shoutout to User83832 for taking the top spot and winning the $1,400 prize with an impressive all-round performance.
Everyone in the top 30 gets rewarded, so the rest of the $8,000 prize money is distributed according to the rules of the competition—$1,000 to second place, $800 to third, and so on. Places 11 to 20 receive $125 each, and places 21 to 30 get $100 each.
🎉🎉🎉 Congratulations to all of you! 🎉🎉🎉
Q3 is officially live, so let’s keep the energy up and aim even higher this round.
NOTE: Payment details will follow shortly (this or next week). For newcomers to the Leaderboard, we will be in touch via email to gather your payment information. Returning top performers can expect their rewards by week's end.
Here's our top 30 rankings for the the second quarter.
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
Welcome back, all-time highs. What a turnaround Q2 delivered. After a brutal 20% slide from February to early April, triggered by tariffs and capped off on what we called “Liberation Day,” markets staged a relentless climb. From the April lows of 4,830, the SPX soared to 6,200 by Monday, June 30th, marking a 28% V-shaped rebound.
NASDAQ led the quarter with a 12% gain, followed by SPX at 7.5%, while bonds struggled. On the macro side, May’s core PCE inflation moved up to 2.7%, showing that tariffs are starting to lift durable goods prices. Q1 GDP was revised down to -0.5%, but Q2 looks stronger, with GDPNow tracking at 2.9%. The Fed is paying close attention, and Powell mentioned that if not for the tariff-driven inflation, rate cuts would likely have already happened.
As we head into Q3, the focus stays on tariff policy, inflation data, and signals from Washington. If Trump appoints a more dovish Fed chair and the administration increases short-term bond issuance, it could create more room for equities to move higher, especially if those shifts happen around the same time as the next QRA later this month.
This week is shorter, with markets closing early on Thursday and shut on Friday for the July 4th holiday. Still, it’s far from quiet. The June jobs report drops Thursday and could shift expectations for a potential September rate cut. The labor market has held firm so far, but any signs of softening might prompt a quicker response. Congress is also working to pass Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” ahead of the break, and with the July 9 trade deadline approaching, tariff updates could easily steal the spotlight again.
…join the $32,000x competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($8000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
And, as always, don’t forget to subscribe to the newsletter.