Consolidating & grinding up
Boring market action ahead of inflation prints this week
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November’s employment data showed a gain of 150,000 jobs, signaling a still strong labor market after October’s weak addition of 12,000 jobs, impacted by storm disruptions and a strike. Markets were mostly consolidating.
Inflation reports are up this week, including November’s CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. These will provide crucial insights ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Last Saturday we presented our bull 🐂 view for 2025 to our paid subscribers - see here if you missed it. A lot of optimism was shared, so this Saturday we need to counterbalance with the bear 🐻 view. It’s not just the negation of the bull view, there is more nuance. Then in two weeks we summarize both and present our 🦈view. Don’t miss it!
The competition
With November's inflation data coming out this week and key economic reports on the way, it's a great time to refine our strategies and position ourselves strongly as the year comes to a close.
NOTE: three more weeks are left, and we will have the Christmas week active, as market is open on Thu and Fri. The survey will be open until Christmas Day, Wed, 25th, 8am ET, as usual, so you will be able to make your predictions. We will place our positions the following day.
The survey will be closed in the first week of the new year, and will reopen on the 7th of January.
Keep your strategies sharp and your eyes on the top!
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
November’s employment data, released Friday, showed a gain of 150,000 jobs, slightly above expectations. This followed weaker October data, which saw just 12,000 jobs added, partly due to storm disruptions and a strike. Reports on job openings and private-sector employment earlier in the week offered mixed signals, but overall the labor market is still showing resilience.
The general market reaction last week was a grind up. There was one jump on Wednesday, and the rest was mostly consolidation. We went long but this was one of those weeks where despite being right in direction, time decay did its thing and reduced our profits thereby ending the week flat.
Looking ahead, inflation takes the spotlight this week, with November’s CPI set for release Wednesday following October's increase to 2.6%. Additional reports on wholesale inflation through the PPI and import/export prices later in the week will provide further context on price trends. Other updates include small business optimism on Tuesday and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday. With the Fed in its blackout period, these data points will be closely watched for signals on the economy ahead of next week’s policy meeting.
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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