Continuation or bounce?

Should get interesting in the next two weeks

Quick summary:

• The sixth week of the Q3 competition is up & running - click here to join the action.

• The Fed and Treasury held steady last week, but a rare split FOMC vote hinted at rising pressure for a September rate cut.

• A September cut is now priced in at 80%, though the market reaction suggests growing concern over trade and economic momentum.

• Weak jobs data and new tariffs dragged markets lower by week’s end, despite strong earnings from major tech names

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The competition

Tariffs hit, jobs missed, and the rate cut odds for September surged to 80%—yet the leaderboard remains wide open. No major catalysts this week, which makes it all about holding steady while the dust settles. Let’s see who can stay in control.

Keep your strategies sharp and your eyes on the top!

NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.

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Last week’s performance

Last week started quietly. No changes from the Fed or the Treasury. Rates stayed the same and coupon issuance was left untouched. However, during Powell’s speach, it was hinted that rate cuts are not on the table just yet, even for September, and this hawkishness brought the markets down immediately on the day.

We saw everything play out as expected until Thursday. Sideways action into FOMC, a dip on Powell’s tone, then a bounce from strong earnings by Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. But the rest of Thu and especially Friday flipped the script. The US added just 73,000 jobs in July, and previous months were revised down by 258,000. The three-month average dropped to 106,000 from 380,000. On top of that, Trump moved forward with tariffs. Canada was hit with 35%, Brazil with 40%, Mexico got a 25% temporary rate, and China is still facing 30% with a final call due August 12.

Markets pulled back despite rising odds of a rate cut, which jumped to 80% by week’s end. The reaction was likely more about tariffs than monetary policy. And then on Monday, the entire Friday sell-off was easily reversed, despite widespread concerns over the weekend given Trump’s firing of the BLS director.

August and September tend to be rough anyway. Keeping protection on still looks like the right call, even if the broader outlook into year-end remains positive.

Looking ahead, we’ll get fresh numbers this week on the US trade deficit, productivity, consumer credit, and jobless claims. These will help confirm whether the slowdown in labor and demand is picking up pace. Trade remains a key theme, especially with tariffs starting to reshape global flows and pressure domestic activity. Fed officials Mary Daly and Alberto Musalem are also scheduled to speak. After last week’s split FOMC vote and weak jobs data, any signal about a September cut will be closely watched. With the market now pricing in an 80% chance, guidance from here carries weight.

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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.

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