Final week of Q2!
Make your predictions count.
Quick summary:
The final week of the Q2 competition is here. Don’t miss your last chance to climb the leaderboard and secure your position!
Last week witnessed another sideways-up trajectory in the markets, with two spikes to all-time highs on Monday and Thursday, followed by a stabilization.
We finished flat for the week, which was expected given the consolidations during Friday and Thursday.
Data dependance continues. This week we get the third and final Q1 GDP estimates on Thursday, alongside data on durable orders , jobless claims, and home sales. But the big number comes out on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for May. This is the one the Fed keeps its eyes on. Also a few Fed speakers throughout the week. It’s also the end of the month, and end of quarter. Keep this in mind while predicting.
The competition
It’s getting tight at the top! Only 3 points separate the top 10 positions. Impressive!
As we enter this final decisive week of the competition, do give your best in trying to anticipate the trend accurately, as the margins are so small, every little thing will matter. Best of luck to all as we close this quarter!
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
Last week's markets followed a familiar script, notching another sideways-up week with two spikes to all-time highs—first on Monday, then on Thursday—before a flat Friday. This movement aligns with the sideways-up regime we've chronicled over the last month and a half: markets surge typically after positive economic news, then consolidate at these higher levels for a stretch.
For us, this type of consolidation price action implies staying flat in terms of performance. We missed the Monday move, positioned on Tuesday (as Wed was a holiday), and couldn’t really do much for the rest of the week.
One more week left this quarter.
You know what that means? End of month and end of quarter flows will be important as we move towards the end of the week. Hopefully this means more direct price action in the later part of the week. Let’s see what it gives us.
But also, this week we get some interesting data. The main focus is on the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data due Friday (before open), the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. There is also some other economic data, like the final revision of the Q1 GDP on Thursday. Additionally, significant attention is directed toward Nvidia’s shareholder meeting, indicative of the growing interest in the AI sector, and its prized possession - the NVDA stock.
…join the $20,000 competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($5000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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