Is it over? Probably not.
Earnings take center stage, and more tariff news awaits.
Quick summary:
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NOTE: The week is shorter, it ends on Thursday, as markets are closed on Good Friday.
Markets swung wildly last week, with SPX dropping below 4,850 before rallying 9.5% midweek and closing with high volatility as trade tensions escalated and then eased.
Inflation data came in cooler, but bond yields spiked to 4.5% amid a Treasury selloff, pressuring the White House to announce a 90-day tariff pause (excluding China).
This week brings key earnings from Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and TSMC, along with retail sales and housing data that could further shape the macro outlook.
The competition
What a stretch it’s been. As we head into earnings weeks, the leaderboard remains tight and the pressure is on. Volatility isn’t just in the markets—it’s in the rankings too. Let’s ride the momentum, and make every move count on the leaderboard.
NOTE #1: Apologies for being late with the blog, it was supposed to go out yesterday.
NOTE #2: This week trading ends on a Thursday, markets are closed on Good Friday, so your predictions are for the Thursday end of day.
NOTE #3: We made all the payments for the Q1 prizes. If you haven’t received the money yet, it should be on your accounts this week. If not, please do reach out to us.
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Last week’s performance
What a wild ride. The week opened with a sharp sell-off that dropped SPX below 4,850, triggering fears of a “Black Monday.” A fake headline about a 90-day tariff pause briefly sent markets flying from -5% to +3% before crashing back to -2% once the truth surfaced. But the real fireworks came Wednesday—China hit back with an 84% tariff, and the US responded with a 90-day moratorium on all tariffs except China, which got slapped with a 125% rate. SPX ripped 9.5% higher. Then Thursday came with a 6% drop, a bounce to -3.5%, and a slow grind up into Friday. VIX stayed above 40 all week—hedging hasn’t been this expensive since COVID.
Beneath all the noise, inflation came in cooler than expected on both CPI and PPI, but the market barely blinked. Instead, the Michigan survey showed one-year inflation expectations jumping to 6.7%, driven by tariff fears. The bond market was the real pressure point—someone (possibly Japan) unloaded a massive amount of Treasuries, pushing the 10Y yield to 4.5% and likely prompting the White House to hit pause on tariffs. The takeaway? This isn’t just noise. If the US truly leans into cutting trade deficits, the long-term impact could be a revaluation of market caps and demand for US debt.
For now, things look stuck in a volatile sideways pattern. If trade talks show signs of progress—starting with Japan—markets could climb on any headline that smells like a “deal.” But if we stall out, especially ahead of Big Tech earnings, another leg down feels likely.
This week brings more catalysts. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup are set to report earnings, following last week’s wave of financials. Netflix and TSMC are the big names to watch outside the banking sector—both report Thursday. Netflix’s update will be its first without subscriber numbers, shifting the focus to revenue and margins. TSMC comes in after a solid quarter, and any guidance hinting at chip demand will matter.
Retail sales, housing starts, and homebuilder confidence will round out the macro picture. Consumer spending has been uneven, and March data could reveal whether recent strength is holding up. On the housing side, construction sentiment and supply numbers may show how much tariffs are starting to bite. Progress on trade talks could help cool things off—but without it, this choppiness likely continues.
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