Jumpy markets ahead?
ORCA made 2.5% last week
Quick summary:
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Last week saw strong performance, highlighted by Netflix's 11% surge on Friday, driving the NASDAQ upward with 79% of S&P 500 companies reporting above expectations in earnings per share.
ORCA’s BASON had a great week, yielding 2.5%.
The market is entering a "window of weakness" due to potentially lower supportive flows and upcoming events such as the U.S. election and FOMC meeting, indicating a bumpy yet possibly lucrative period ahead for quick gains.
This week, the market's focus will be on the Federal Reserve, with several key officials scheduled to speak, which could provide important cues on future monetary policies. The release of the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday will offer detailed insights into the economic conditions across the U.S.
On Saturday we’ll discuss about the implications of upcoming Big Tech earnings and what the election playbook might look like.
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As we move into a week marked by key speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the anticipated release of the Beige Book, the financial landscape is set for significant insights. Let’s use this opportunity to either strengthen our positions or strategically move up the leaderboard!
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Last week’s performance
Reflected a bullish stance overall, despite some hiccups with fading rallies on Monday and Thursday. Notably, the earnings season kicked off with a bang as Netflix soared 11% on Friday, buoying the NASDAQ, with 79% of reporting S&P 500 companies beating EPS forecasts and 64% topping revenue predictions. The spotlight remains on the upcoming reports from the Mag7, set to shape market trends in the near term.
Looking ahead, we're entering a "window of weakness" with potentially lower supportive flows and heightened event-related volatility, as the U.S. election and FOMC meeting loom. Option prices signal cautious hedging activities, suggesting a bumpy ride into early November. Yet, the market dynamics suggest that any significant sell-offs could be short-lived, presenting lucrative opportunities for quick gains, especially with an end-of-year rally on the horizon fueled by robust market inflows.
ORCA‘s BASON had aniticpated an up move and most of its returns following the Thu gap open.
As we move into this week, attention turns to the Federal Reserve, with several key officials, including Governor Michelle Bowman and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, poised to deliver important speeches. These insights are expected to offer further guidance on monetary policy directions. The Fed's Beige Book, scheduled for release on Wednesday, will provide a detailed look at economic conditions across various U.S. districts.
Also note what we discussed on Saturday. Markets are more likely to be jumpy around key levels. Keep this in mind. And good luck!
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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