Last week of Q3 competition!
Make it count and good luck!
The Q3 competition is up & running, just 1 more week left before we declare the winners! - click here to join the action.
SPX surged to a record level of over 5,720 after the Federal Reserve announced a 50bps rate cut, initiating a bullish market trajectory.
Upcoming speeches by all FOMC members this week, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday 9 AM). In addition to that we get Q2 GDP data and jobless claims on Thursday, plus core PCE inflation on Friday.
There will be no newsletter this Saturday, we will provide an overview of ORCA’s Q3 on next Tuesday (Oct 1st). After that, we will continue with the regular Saturday editions.
The competition
With just one week left in the competition and important data updates expected, our leaderboard is in focus. This week offers a final chance to advance your positions as we wrap up Q3 (and move up on the annual leaderboard as well). The race is tight, as always! Let’s make the most of these opportunities.
Keep your strategies sharp and your eyes on the top!
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
SPX closed at a new all-time high of over 5,720, following the FOMC's announcement of a hiking cycle starting with a 50bps cut. This move has propelled the markets into a bullish trajectory, evidenced by Thursday’s rally and the breach of the triple top resistance at 5600-5670. Despite mixed initial reactions due to the dot-plots, the subsequent strong market performance has set a new support level, suggesting continued upward momentum.
Critics of the cutting cycle often cite historical precedents where such moves precede economic downturns. However, current conditions are far from typical. Comparisons to past crises like 2008 are not particularly apt today; we are likely at the early stages of an AI-driven bull market rather than its peak. Key macro indicators, especially the labor market and GDP growth, remain crucial to watch in the coming months.
Some of this data is coming up this week. On Thursday we get the revised Q2 GDP numbers and the new jobless claim data, while on Friday we get the August PCE inflation index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Investors are looking for continuation of the soft landing narrative, so anything that dramatically falls outside this scope is potential for a sell.
Good luck in your final week of Q3, happy to kick-start the new competition next week.
…join the $20,000 competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($5000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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