Like nothing happened...
Markets rallying back
Quick summary:
The 3rd week of the Q2 competition is up and running - click here to join the action. Note: All Q1 survey cash prizes have been processed.
INTERVIEW WITH OUR Q1 Winner: Congrats to Stian Haukaas. We will be doing these interviews with our winners from now on (optional, of course).
Trend Status: SPY is back to being bullish after reclaiming its 50-day MA, though low buying volume suggests some cause of concern.
Over the weekend we got news of a US naval blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, and this fundamentally changed the game again.
Key Levels: Traders are watching resistance between 687–695 and immediate support at 674–676; a breakout above 695 targets the 700 psychological milestone.
Q1 earnings start this week with major banks all reporting, along with NFLX, ASML, J&J, etc. With earnings season in full swing, markets getting technically bullish, we are in for a fun ride. PPI came in lower than expected today (4%, vs 4.6% expected).
Game theory of the war revisited
I wrote a piece on the game theory of Iran war about a week after it started.
I wrote a quick game theory analysis of the Iran war about a week after the war started. According to the underlying assumptions, the Nash equilibrium outcome was protracted stalemate, and this was the outcome we got all throughout March.
However, in light of the newest developments over the weekend, with Trump now threatening a naval blockade of the Strait after a failed first round of peace negotiations, I feel like I need to revisit the given scenarios as we just got introduced to another player on the stage - the same player that forced Iran to the negotiating table last week. No, not Pakistan. China.
Charts
SPY is currently navigating a recovery phase, having recently reclaimed its 50-day moving average after a volatile March that tested the low 630s. On the daily timeframe, the trend has shifted from neutral to bullish as the price approaches a significant resistance zone between 687 and 695. While the long-term trend remains supported by a rising 200-day moving average, the volume profile suggests some hesitation; we are seeing a slight negative correlation where price advances are not yet being met with the conviction of high-buying volume. The MACD has recently flipped positive on the daily chart, signaling renewed momentum, but with the RSI hovering near 66, we are approaching “overbought” territory where a temporary cooling off or consolidation would be a healthy development before any attempt at new all-time highs.
The competition
Today we’re featuring Stian Haukaas, the winner of the Q1 2026 Survey Competition.
Stian is an aspiring systematic trader with a strong interest in financial markets, who uses the competition to test and refine his Excel-based models in real market conditions while developing a more probabilistic approach to trading.
Below, he answers a few of our questions and breaks down his process, his thinking, and his approach to the survey week after week.
What first drew you to join the ORCA Survey Competition?
“I first heard about the ORCA Survey Competition through the Norwegian podcast “Tid er penger” with Peter Warren and Sverre. The interview with Vuk Vukovic really sparked my interest. I was fascinated by how the competition bridges the gap between professional hedge fund insight and independent trading analysis. It felt like an exciting opportunity to test my market views against others in a structured and data-driven way.”
How do you usually approach your weekly predictions?
“In my daily work, I rely heavily on Excel for analysis and modeling. For the weekly predictions, I use a custom Excel model I’ve built, which analyzes historical price data across key markets to generate forecasts. This structured, data-driven approach ensures my predictions are grounded in quantifiable patterns rather than guesswork.”
What do you think sets consistently good predictors apart?
“Consistently good predictors stand out through a disciplined, data-driven process combined with intellectual humility. They rely on robust backtested models, while actively updating views based on new evidence, avoiding biases, and thinking probabilistically rather than in absolutes. It’s not about being right every time, but about refining methods continuously and learning from discrepancies between predictions and outcomes.”
Has participating changed how you view or analyze markets?
“Yes, participating has reinforced my probabilistic thinking. My Excel model should perform well under normal market conditions but has its limitations during sudden abnormal events. So the last 2-3 weeks have been challenging. Going forward, I emphasize probability ranges and exploring ways to refine my model.”
What keeps you coming back each week?
“I keep returning for the learning curve, testing and validating my Excel model against real markets every single week.”
If you could give one piece of advice to new participants, what would it be?
“Find your method and think in probabilities. Test it against real outcomes weekly, and give it time.”
In terms of the competition itself, the market is currently wrestling with the "lower highs, lower lows" structure as failed peace talks and maritime blockades send oil north of $100.
As we kick off this week’s competition, it’s clear that only the sharpest predictors can navigate the stagflationary pincers and geopolitical shocks that left the rest of the herd caught between a war and a hard place.
Stay focused and keep climbing the ranks!
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
…join the $32,000x competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($8000) and annual (3% of our GP’s profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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