More of the same…
May jobs report in focus this week
Quick summary:
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Nvidia delivered strong earnings, but markets ended flat as gains were quickly erased by tariff uncertainty and month-end rebalancing flows.
April core PCE came in at 0.12%, with headline inflation at 2.1%, while housing costs remain elevated at 4.2% annualized.
Equities are 3% below all-time highs, gold leads YTD at +23%, and bonds continue to underperform.
All eyes this week are on Friday’s May jobs report and a series of Fed speeches that could shape the outlook for rate cuts.
The competition
Despite NVDA’s strong earnings, the market ended the week flat—and the leaderboard remains tight. With the May jobs report landing this Friday and Powell set to speak midweek, momentum can shift quickly. Let’s use this window to pick up the pace and separate from the pack.
Keep your strategies sharp and your eyes on the top!
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Last week’s performance
Last week was all about Nvidia—and they delivered. A solid earnings beat on both revenue and EPS helped push the market up 1.5% after hours on Wednesday, alongside news that a U.S. trade court blocked Trump’s tariffs, saying the executive branch had overstepped. But by Thursday’s open, that move was cut in half, and by midday it was completely erased. The appeal on the tariff ruling was accepted quickly, adding to uncertainty rather than clearing it. Meanwhile, month-end rebalancing flows seemed to pull capital from equities into bonds, contributing to choppy price action.
Overall, after May’s bounce back equities are still hovering just 3% below all-time highs, gold is up 23% on the year, bonds remain negative, and volatility spikes continue to be short-lived. April’s core PCE came in at 0.12%—the lowest since Feb 2021—bringing headline inflation to 2.1%. Housing costs are still rising at a 4.2% annualized pace, keeping pressure on real-world prices. But the bigger picture hasn’t changed: bullish momentum remains intact, and without a major downside catalyst, the odds of a sideways-to-up summer keep rising—even if the looming July tariff deadline or Q3 bond supply shock eventually breaks that calm.
This week, attention shifts to the May jobs report coming out Friday, which could influence the Fed’s next move. With rates still held at 4.25% to 4.5%, any signs of labor market softening—especially after April’s stronger-than-expected payrolls—might bring rate cuts back into focus. We’ll also get updates on job openings, private-sector payrolls, and unemployment claims. On top of that, Fed Chair Powell and several regional Fed officials are scheduled to speak, and the Beige Book will give more insight into economic conditions across the country.
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