Discover more from Oraclum's predictions
ORCA vs benchmarks in Q3 (thus far)
Back to our very best. BASON getting better and better
New survey (on our new app) is up & running - click here.
ORCA beating all the benchmarks in Q3: bonds, equities across the board, even commodities
BASON is getting better and better: great performance over the past two weeks, both precision and accuracy
Further macro positioning highly contingent upon economic data this week. Don’t do anything stupid before they come out (paid subscribers will get an insight and positioning playbook on Wed/Thu).
Eventful week coming up: US CPI for August is out on Wednesday (8:30 ET), PPI and retail sales come out on Thursday, along with the ECB interest rate decision (probably a pause).
The survey is live on our new app, jump right in:
There are three more weeks left of the competition in Q3. Make sure they count!
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, here is a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Benchmark portfolio comparison
Two weeks ago we showed you the performance of our macro portfolio during July and August. We were sending out updates on a (bi-)weekly basis on opening and closing short positions during that time, showing you exactly what we did and when. But in addition to macro, the BASON options strategy also did well. Even better actually.
After a month where all major asset classed ended up negative (the August sell-off was highly correlated as everything went down, from bonds to equities to gold to crypto), ORCA delivered a substantial premium to its investors. Even though equities and commodities are still up in Q3 (see below), our performance beats them by a wide margin. Beating the benchmarks by such a margin is something we’ve gotten used to over the past two years. Happy to see it outperforming once again.
Performance over the past two weeks
With that in mind, let’s see how the survey itself performed over the past two weeks:
Great directional predictions on S&P and QQQ, and almost fascinating accuracy across the board. 4/6 under 1% error in week 9, and 5/6 under 1% error in week 10. Really really good, especially considering the past two weeks were mostly trading sideways (from Wed to Fri).
BASON’s predictions are again around 70% accuracy, enabling us to deliver a decent return even with a constrained risk-to-reward strategy. We are excited to see what’s in store for September. Subscribe to our paid version to see how we’ll position for it:
This week we get very important data. CPI comes out on Wednesday, 8:30 ET. The consensus expectation is 3.6% year-on-year inflation (another read higher than the previous one, confirming a change of trend). Is inflation creeping back up? How will the markets react? Shrug off or panic? Or neither? Or will inflation come in colder than expected thus adding fuel to the “soft landing” narrative?
While pondering on that question, keep in mind that we also get PPI the next day, coupled with the ECB interest rate decision. The expectation there is a pause. This will primarily impact the EUR/USD rate, while the impact on US equity markets is more likely to come from inflation data. Let's see where it goes.
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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