ORCA's Q1 performance review
Q1 competition winners announced
Markets down, BASON up. This was always one of our favorite lines to present our results, and our March performance in particular has been emblematic of this. The ORCA BASON Fund delivered 3.73% gross in March, closing Q1 at over 9% gross (6.87% net), delivering against an S&P500 that was down around 7% over the same period.
In March, but also throughout the past three months, it was all about BASON’s signal accuracy. It was directionally right in most weeks, and when it wasn’t - our hedged long part of the portfolio delivered the ideal buffer, exemplifying why we decided to do it in the first place. Yes, they lost during March, but the weekly puts we have in place more than compensated these losses, making that part of the portfolio still a net benefit.
Most importantly, all this was achieved during periods of very high volatility in March, and very rangebound trading (with elevating volatility) during January and February. Usually, it months like Jan and Feb - where markets are rangebound and options prices keep being very high - we would have been flat to negative. Even during the selloff weeks in March, you had bursts of news on social media that induced some quick short squeezes.
Due to our vol regime adaptations we are able to consistently capture profits whenever we have an accurate prediction. This makes us robust to the sudden shifts in markets due to unexpected social media posts from the President, and we are well equipped to handle even this type of market regime, characterized by very high volatility and constant swings.
This too is a testament to our new approach that we adapted since mid-October, ending our 8% drawdown since August, and setting us up on a strong upward trajectory ever since - making 15% since that drawdown. It was a period of small but very steady linear gains. No superweeks this time, which makes me even more proud of the result we achieved this quarter. This 9% feels bigger than all of our double-digit quarters achieved in the past.
Q2 competition
Most importantly, the Q2 Survey Competition is now officially open!
There is another $8,000 to play for, and the annual leaderboard is still very much in contention for that 3% of our GP’s profits.
NOTE: The predictions you make today will seem like they are being made for March, but after tomorrow, they will be allocated to April, as you are making them for Thursday, April 2nd.
Yes, Markets are closed on April 3rd, Good Friday, don’t forget.
And least but certainly not least - our winners for Q1 are all announced below. Congratulations to all of you in the top 30, you will all get your prize money this or next week! And a special congratulations to our winner, user Stian Hofstad Haukaas. You win the $1,400 first prize, and a pole position for the annual prize. Good luck going forward!
Q1 Survey winners
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
…join the $32,000x competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($8000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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