ORCA's Q2 performance review
Quick summary:
Q2 has wrapped up with User25025 taking the 1,400 dollar grand prize.
Please note: this week’s survey (June 30th) will still appear under Q2 until it auto-shifts to Q3 tomorrow , no action needed on your end.
- click here to join the action. Q3 is now officially live.
Also, the week is shorter, markets are closed on Friday, July 3rd
As this is the final day of Q2, we give you a brief overview of ORCA’s performance. We had a great quarter, and are looking to extend the wonderful result even more coming into the second half of 2026.
SPY trades within a range between 730 and 740.
Key levels to watch: a close above 745 to 749 favors a retest of 760, a close below 723 opens the door toward 700
Holiday-shortened week is data-heavy, with ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS, ADP, ISM Services, and a Thursday-early June jobs report (consensus 172K) all in focus ahead of the July 4th close
ORCA Q2 performance
Q2 was the quarter the portfolio proved it can do more than monetize panic. April rewarded the transition from defense to participation. May rewarded patience in a low-volatility grind. June tested the structure under less cooperative conditions, where signal path, option decay, and hedge behavior mattered more than broad market direction.
Through April and May, the ORCA BASON Fund compounded strongly, returning 3.90% and 4.45% net, respectively, bringing year-to-date net performance to 16%. June was flat, but far more useful analytically than the headline number suggests. It showed exactly where the system made money, where it did not, and why the two-sleeve structure remains central to the fund.
Comparing it with the key benchmark, the S&P500, it’s more than holding its ground, especially during the big drawdown periods. It’s what a hedge fund is supposed to do, isn’t it?
Finally, looking back one year ago, our bounce back since the October 2025 lows looks even more impressive. It is yet another testament to the resilience of our Fund and our entire process.
Charts
SPY enters the new week trading around 740, still digesting the sharp two-week round trip that took price from a fresh all-time high near 760 down toward 720 before stabilizing. The pullback was driven by a mix of quarter-end rebalancing, an AI-related tech wobble led by memory names like Micron, and the spike in geopolitical risk around the Israel-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz shipping. With the ceasefire holding and oil sliding back toward pre-war levels, much of that fear premium has already drained out of the VIX, which eased back from above 20 toward the high teens.
Price has been compressing in a tightening range just under the 745 to 749 zone, with MACD on this timeframe rolling over from positive into flat or mildly negative territory, suggesting momentum has cooled rather than reversed outright. Volume has been unremarkable on the recent grind higher, which raises the usual caution flag about a low-conviction bounce rather than a fresh impulsive rally. The most likely near-term scenarios are either a continuation of this rangebound chop between roughly 723 and 745 as the market waits for fresh catalysts, or a decisive break in either direction once this week’s data lands. A clean break above 745 to 749 on rising volume would favor a retest of the 760 highs, while failure there and a slide back under the 50-day average would put the 700 to 710 zone back on the table.
This is a holiday-shortened week that still packs a heavy macro punch. ISM Manufacturing kicks things off Monday, JOLTS job openings follow Tuesday, ADP private payrolls land Wednesday, and the big one, June nonfarm payrolls, is released a day early on Thursday, July 2, ahead of the Friday July 4 market closure. Consensus sits around 172,000 jobs added, and given Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tilt and the market’s ongoing debate over a possible September hike, this print carries outsized weight for rate expectations. ISM Services rounds out the data slate on Thursday as well. With oil easing and inflation expectations relatively contained despite the Iran flare-up, a labor market that comes in roughly in line with estimates would likely reinforce the current rangebound pattern, while a significant beat or miss could be the catalyst that finally forces SPY out of its 723 to 745 box.
🏆 Q2 Results Are In, Q3 Competition Now Open!
The scores are in, the leaderboard has settled, and it’s time to crown our Q2 champions.
Q3 brings another round of 8,000 dollars up for grabs, and the race for the annual prize, 3% of our GP’s profits, is still wide open!
Now, onto the results. A huge congratulations to everyone who placed in the top 30 this quarter, payouts will be processed within the next two weeks.
Top honors this round go to User25025, who takes home the 1,400 dollar grand prize and grabs the early lead in the annual standings. Well played, and onward to Q3!
Please note: since today is June 30th, this week’s survey will still appear under Q2 in the system, it’ll automatically move over to Q3 tomorrow. So go ahead and submit as usual, nothing extra needed on your end.)
Stay focused and keep climbing the ranks!
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
…join the $32,000x competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($8000) and annual (3% of our GP’s profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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