Predictions for Friday, April 22nd 2022

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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, April 22nd 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.

Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:

Once again the prediction is that we will finish lower from Tuesday’s close (when the markets rallied 1-2% during the day), while the 10-year yield should keep going up. Yesterday the S&P500 remained flat, while the Dow pushed up on good earnings. It’s a bit risky to predict a slight reversal during earnings season, but we stick to the BASON and place the usual limits on our potential losses (see below).

We also predicted a higher level for TSLA in response to its earnings (announced yesterday after close), which is likely to finish close to the target, therefore entirely reversing yesterday’s 4.5% decline.

This time our predictions gave us ample space to place a directional bet. We traded the usual ten 436/437 to 449/450 iron condors for SPY 22/04, for $480 immediate gain.

We also bought two SPY 22/04 450 puts for $920.

The second pair of trades was the 10 iron condors for DIA, 340/341 to 354/355, for
$310 immediate gain, in addition to one DIA 22/04 355 put for $418.

Stop-losses are set at 30%, take-profits at 50%.

Remember, the goal here is to limit your losses as much as possible when we’re wrong, and maximize the upside when we’re right. If we’re right both in range and direction, we could get over $2200, if we’re wrong direction, but within range, we get around $400, and we lose $600-$700 if we get everything wrong.
A decent asymmetry there.

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.

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