Predictions for Friday, April 29th 2022
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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, April 29th 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.
Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:
Notice that we’ve included an explanation of what the confidence interval graphs stand for, and how the C.I.s are being determined.
This week we’re looking at a slight rebound from Tuesday’s lows. The rebound is expected to be modest by Friday, despite today’s surge. This means we’re anticipating more volatility amidst the earnings season this week that sees all the Big Tech reporting their Q1 results (GOOGL, MSFT, and FB already did, AAPL and AMZN are due today after market close).
In terms of the options strategy, we went for the standard SPY 29/04 iron condor, ranging from 416/417 to 429/430 (10 contracts) for $540 immediate gain.
We also traded 10 iron condors for DIA 29/04, 329/330 to 340/341, for
$300 immediate gain.
In addition, we bought 1 put on SPY 29/04 at 430 strike, and 1 put on DIA 29/04 at 342 strike. The reason for this is purely a downward directional hedge. The markets, in general, are in a downward trend, so even if a slight rebound does occur, we need to keep protection in case the rebound reverses and the markets end up like they did last Friday. If it doesn’t happen, we pocket a small loss.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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