Predictions for Friday, December 9th 2022
Quick summary:
Markets were expected to finish lower this week
Trading SPY condors at 382/383 to 397/398 and SPY puts at 397
Trading DIA condors at 329/330 to 340/341 and DIA puts at 340
Watch this tutorial video to see how we trade this and how to interpret our predictions:
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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, December 9th, 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.
Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:
No major events this week, so the markets had no constrains opening up with a more bearish stance in the first three days. Today’s price action went against us a bit, forcing a shutdown of the put positions, but the condors are still live so we’ll see how it moves again tomorrow. Made 1.5% in the first two days from the macro positions, so we’re hoping to hold on to those gains by the end of the week.
How did we trade this?
As per our predictions, this week we are trading 382/383 to 397/398 SPY 09/12 iron condor (25 contracts) for $1,050 total premium. We are buying 4 SPY 397 puts 09/12 for $4.38. Stop losses at 50%.
For DIA, we are trading 329/330 to 340/341 DIA 09/12 iron condor (25 contracts) for $850 total premium. We are also buying 4 DIA 09/12 340 puts for $4.4. Stop loss is at 50% for both.
The portfolio is at 51,327 USD, so the allocation is up to $5133 for options, 20,531 for long-short positions in each of these:
SPY short: sold $6416 worth of SPY shares (at $393.9 per share)
DIA short: sold $6416 worth of DIA shares (at $336.6 per share)
UVXY - no position.
Macro positioning (unchanged): short $10.25k in SPY and $10.25k in QQQ (no change in position plus the same March 2023 calls as hedges).
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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