Predictions for Friday, November 18th 2022
Quick summary:
Markets predicted to finish higher this week
Trading SPY condors at 391/392 to 404/405 and SPY call at 392
Trading DIA condors at 332/333 to 341/342 and DIA call at 333
Watch this tutorial video to see how we trade this and how to interpret our predictions:
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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, November 18th, 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.
Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:
After yesterday’s and today’s moves, we will probably be stopped out of our call positions. The monthly options expire tomorrow, so there could still be some violent moves up or down. But overall, it will most likely be another negative week, unfortunately. Drawdown control is once again in focus. The macro positions are likely to deliver and this will ease the pressure, as usual. Let’s see what happens.
How did we trade this?
As per our predictions, this week we are trading 391/392 to 404/405 SPY 18/11 iron condor (25 contracts) for $1025 total premium. We are buying 2 SPY 392 calls 18/11 for $6.02. Stop losses at 50%.
For DIA we we are trading the following iron condor: 332/333 to 341/342 DIA 18/11 (25 contracts). Total premium is $900. We are also buying 2 DIA 18/11 333 calls for $4.3. Stop loss is at 50% for both.
The portfolio is at 51,105 USD, so the allocation is $5110 for options, 20,442 for long-short positions in each of these:
SPY long: bought $6388 worth of SPY shares (at $396.4 per share)
DIA long: bought $6388 worth of DIA shares (at $336.4 per share)
UVXY short: sold $7665 worth of UVXY shares (at $9.18 per share)
Macro positioning (unchanged): short $10.2k in SPY and $10.2k in QQQ (no
change in position plus the March 2023 calls as hedges).
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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