Predictions for Friday, September 16th 2022

Quick summary:

• Markets predicted to finish lower this week

• Trading SPY condors at 385/386 to 400/401 and SPY put at 400

• Trading DIA condors at 304/305 to 316/317 and DIA put at 316

• Watch this tutorial video to see how we trade this and how to
  interpret our predictions:

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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, September 16th, 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.

Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:

What a week. The Monday rally was brutally reversed after Tuesday’s CPI data. On Friday we have the options expiry, and the FOMC is up next week, where the probability of a 100bps rate hike went from 0 to 30% in a few hours.

Our outlook for the week is negative across the board. Another surprise rally is always possible, but less likely this time around.

How did we trade this?

As per our predictions, this week we're trading 385/386 to 400/401 SPY 16/09 iron condor (10 contracts) for $420 immediate gain. Stop loss is at 50% (around $280 max).

We are buying a put for downside protection, 1 SPY 400 put 16/09 for $8.1.

For DIA we are trading the following iron condor:  304/305 to 316/317 DIA 16/09 (10 contracts) for $330 immediate gain. We are also buying 1 DIA 16/09 316 put for $4.95. Stop loss is at 50% for both.

No UVXY this time, the range is too small.

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.

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