Predictions for Friday, September 9th 2022
Quick summary:
Markets predicted to finish lower this week
Trading SPY condors at 379/380 to 393/394 and SPY put at 393
Trading DIA condors at 301/302 to 314/315 and DIA put at 314
Watch this tutorial video to see how we trade this and how to
interpret our predictions:
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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, September 9th, 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.
Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:
Just as we made our predictions and bought our positions after yesterday’s open, the markets rallied.
Two of our positions reached their stop-losses (see below), the other three are still hanging on. It was a rally out of nowhere really - perhaps too many people are short after the past two weeks, so there’s no more sellers left. We can see this through the conviction of our group of predictors which has never been stronger in predicting a turn to the downside this week. There is still today and tomorrow to hold on through, but overall, it might again be a loss, or at best a break-even.
How did we trade this?
As per our predictions, this week we're trading 379/380 to 393/394 SPY 09/09 iron condor (10 contracts) for $540 immediate gain. Again no two separate legs, as the condor strategy has a lower loss potential than by separating the legs. Stop loss is at 50% (around $250 max).
We are buying a put for downside protection, 1 SPY 393 put 09/09 for $3.90. The stop-loss was already triggered during yesterday’s rally, and we lost $198 here.
We will closely observe the market today and decide whether or not we will repurchase the puts at a cheaper price (at least 2, maybe 3-4 puts). Follow us on Twitter for more info on this.
For DIA we are trading the following iron condor: 301/302 to 314/315 DIA 09/09 (10 contracts) for $450 immediate gain. We are also buying 1 DIA 09/09 314 put for $2.94. A stop-loss was also triggered here, and we lost $150. Also looking to get back in following today’s price action.
Finally, the UVXY position, bought at $10.37 per share, is still alive, subject to a 10% stop-loss.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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