Predictions for Thursday, April 14th 2022
NOTE: If you wish to get our updates immediately on Wednesday as the market opens, make sure to fill out the prediction survey on Tuesday (and, if you haven’t already, leave your email WITHIN THE APP - click on the link to see how). We reward our participants with early indications of where the market will end up. Everyone else gets the results a day and a half later.
NOTE #2: Typically we send these out on mid-day Thursday with our Friday predictions, but this week we’re sending it out in the morning as the markets are closed tomorrow on Good Friday. Happy to have you all back next week!
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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day earlier if they leave their email), for Thursday, April 14th 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.
Our estimate for the Thursday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:
Our price targets for this week for most indicators are estimated to be close to where they were on Tuesday, albeit somewhat lower. That means that following yesterday’s rally, we are expecting the markets to end lower today in order to meet the targets. Judging by yesterday’s close, we are still within the confidence intervals for each indicator.
As mentioned last time, in addition to SPY, we are also trading DIA (an ETF that follows the Dow Jones Index). However, given that this was a day-and-a-half in advance prediction, rather than the usual 2-day-and-a-half in advance prediction, our potential options profits are lower, and our risk exposure is higher. We adjusted our options trading strategies accordingly.
This week we're trading 432/433 to 444/445 SPY 14/04 iron condor (10 contracts) for $310 immediate gain.
We are also trading 5 iron condors for DIA, 336/337 to 344/345, for $340 immediate gain. No AAPL this time, as the iron condors would be too narrow and too risky.
After yesterday’s rally, we are close to the upper boundary for both, meaning that today we will either activate our stop-loss at 30%, or wait for the whole thing to end within the C.I.s.
Remember, the goal here is to limit your losses as much as possible when we’re wrong, and maximize the upside when we’re right.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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