Q1 done, Q2 competition is now open
Congratulations to all our Q1 winners
Quick summary:
Congrats to all the Q1 winners! Today we kick off the Q2 competition—a brand new quarter, a fresh chance to climb the ranks. Let’s make it count - click here to join the action
SPX ended Q1 with a sharp pullback, after a volatile quarter, making a new low yesterday before bouncing back (likely as a pull of the JPM collar trade).
Recession pricing is gaining ground, with GDPNow falling from +3% to -2% and growing expectations for rate cuts.
This week is packed with important updates, including the April 2nd (tomorrow) tariff implementation, potential trade policy announcements on Wednesday, and the March jobs report on Friday.
Market reactions this week are also important as we kick-start the earnings season in April. More on that in the Saturday newsletter:
The competition
In a thrilling finish to Q1, the competition stayed tight until the very end. Let’s give a big round of applause to everyone who made it onto the leaderboard—and a special shoutout to User78773 for claiming the top spot with a standout performance, taking home the $1,400 prize. Q2 is now underway—let’s keep the momentum going and make it count.
Everyone in the top 30 gets rewarded, so the rest of the $8,000 prize money is distributed according to the rules of the competition—$1,000 to second place, $800 to third, and so on. Places 11 to 20 receive $125 each, and places 21 to 30 get $100 each.
NOTE: Payment details will follow shortly. For newcomers to the Leaderboard, we will be in touch via email to gather your payment information. Returning top performers can expect their rewards by week's end.
Here's our top 30 rankings for the the first quarter.
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
Q1 of 2025 just wrapped up, and what a wild ride it was. SPX surged above 6,100 after Inauguration Day, fueled by early optimism—only to tumble as AI stocks sold off and the first wave of Trump’s tariffs hit. Markets have been on edge since, bouncing briefly before getting slammed again by more policy shocks. After the sell we moved from the 5,600–5,700 range into the 5,700–5,800 band, and then right back down to 5655 yesterday, most likely pinned by the JPM collar trade.
The soft landing narrative is gone. GDPNow estimates fell from +3% to -2% (or +0.2% adjusted), and rate cut expectations are climbing. The shift from soft landing to recession pricing happened fast. Now, all eyes are on April 2nd—tariff day. If full tariffs go through on Mexico, Canada, China, and the EU, more downside is likely. But if there’s a last-minute reversal or a deal, it could spark a rally. Either way, this week sets the stage for earnings season ahead.
Adding more fuel to the fire, tomorrow, Wednesday brings another round of expected trade policy announcements, with existing tariffs set to take effect early Thursday. We’ll also get key data points throughout the week—job openings (Tuesday), private-sector payrolls (Wednesday), jobless claims (Thursday), and the full March jobs report on Friday. Factory orders, trade deficit updates, and PMI surveys will round out the picture, offering more insight into how much these policy moves are weighing on the economy.
…join the $32,000x competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($8000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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