Results: 101% return on BASON's pinpoint accuracy
8/9 predicted almost perfectly
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Last week our BASON predictions got even better than the week before. 8 out of 9 indicators were called correctly, and 7 out of 9 were called within 2% accuracy.
By far the best were our predictions for the S&P500, at 0.21% accuracy, and the Dow, at 0.05% accuracy! After that it was AAPL at 0.21%, and the buoyant TSLA stock at 1.27% accuracy (our price target was $1,100 for TSLA last week).
As usual, the weekly volatility was higher than our precision for every single indicator and every stock (see tables below). This time, every direction was called correctly except for oil prices, which finished almost unchanged from their Tuesday open. Nothing to add to this really, the numbers speak for themselves.
Return at 101% for the week!
What about collected profits? Last Thursday evening we told you what we were buying:
As per these predictions, we once again bought two SPY $450 calls with 29/10 expiry date (using the lower boundary of the C.I. for the strike price), and we used an iron condor for the SPY 29/10, at 455/456 to 465/466 (a slightly narrow margin, where we profit if it ends in this interval). We sold 10 contracts here.
Our call is likely to give us between $400 and $1000 profit, and our iron condor gave us $400 when we sold it, so if it expires outside our C.I.s, we stand to lose in total $600. Even if SPY ends up above 465, we will still hold a profitable position.
Both strategies were in the money. The iron condor was let to expire and made us the initial $400, while the SPY call ended up giving us a $611 profit before we sold on Friday. The return was therefore $1,011, or 101% on the initial $1,000 investment for that week.
Following BASON’s strategy from the beginning (iron condors at first, hedged with call options since July) - meaning that each week we invest $1,000 (risk $1,600) into the given strategies - produced a stunning 49.9% return** from May until today! And all that while not even running during August and September. In the mean time, the returns on the S&P500 would have been a total of 10% for the entire period.
** This is actually severely underestimated, given that we took a portfolio of $10,000 where we only invest $1000 each week (the risk is even greater actually, we risk to lose $1000 used to buy the call options, and $600 on the iron condor). This means we only risk 16% of the portfolio each week for options strategies based on our predictions. Hence the need to have a larger initial allocation and compare the total returns to a passive index-holding strategy.
Also, keep in mind that these trades were only with SPY options, no other indicators or stocks were used, meaning that the returns could have been even more impressive. For example, for last week, you could have also made a small fortune on TSLA stocks, where we predicted the price to end up at $1,100 dollars. Buying TSLA call options even on Wednesday (when the price was $1,030) would have been quite lucrative.
So stick around, participate in our survey competition regularly to get this info before others get it, and try make some profits from it.
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DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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