Results: a great week, despite the turbulence
Up 3%, mostly due to the post-FOMC short
Quick summary:
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Last week was another rollercoaster and very unexpected price action after an initially bearish reaction to both the Treasury and the Fed on Wednesday. The week finished off with another all-time-high, following excellent earnings from META and AMZN.
We first made some money shorting, then lost some of it the next day, then made it back on the long. All in all, not bad, a +3% week for ORCA.
This week will be much lighter in terms of news, so it will be interesting to see how the market ultimately reacts.
The Saturday paid section will talk about the outlook for the next month for equities and bonds.
The competition
[NOTE to winners from Q4 and 2023: we have made the prize payments. Do let us know if you haven’t received yours yet, we will look into it].
When things go turbulent as they did last week, the leaderboard often changes a lot. The same happened last week. Still some excellent precision on the main indicators. Keep it up everybody! And remember, consistency is key to staying in the top. And good predictions, obviously.
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
Just as we were closing January with an all time high, the Wednesday QRA and FOMC sent markets down. But instead of this continuing on Thursday, we got a reversal. A gap up open, slight correction, and then a strong rally first to make back all that was lost during Wednesday, and then on Friday it just kept pushing higher even further. To yet another all time high.
I talked about why this could have happened - why the sell-off failed to sustain itself for at least one more day - in the Saturday blog. So instead of a correction, we got killer earnings from META and AMZN after Thu close, and no surprise - another short squeeze rally throughout Friday.
We got into the FOMC shorts in our usual time, just as Powell was halfway through, and made a considerable profit already on the first day (up 3% for the week). But Thursday’s reversal pushed us back to close early (lost 1%), and ride the longs into Friday to make all of it back (still up 3%). A successful week for us, despite the - in the end - missed prediction for Friday.
This week is much much lighter. Powell was on 60 Minutes on Sunday, repeating that the March cut won’t happen (prob of a cut is now down to 16%), and a few other FOMC Members are making speeches this week. Jobless claims are on Thu, and that’s the biggest economic data, while we still continue with a lot of earnings:
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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