Results: Another great week
Stellar performance continues: 6/7 called right, <1% error
Welcome back dear subscribers! The competition is officially open for week 3 in Q2 2022. The new leaderboard is available within the app. Get in, have your say on our 5 indicators and 2 stocks, take opportunity from our early info on price targets, and keep pushing for that $2000 prize!
Note: If you haven’t already, don’t forget to leave your email after you finish the prediction, so that we can send you early results on Wednesday - see the end of the post.
Week 2 was yet another week with incredibly accurate predictions. 6 out of 7 were called in the right direction, 5 out of 7 with a margin of error <0.75%. The results really speak for themselves:
For the S&P500 we had a target of 4,400, it finished at 4,392, after going up first on Wed, and then down by the end of Thu. This is exactly what we told our subscribers when we published the predictions before market open on Thursday (and to our competition users already on Wednesday):
Our price targets for this week for most indicators are estimated to be close to where they were on Tuesday, albeit somewhat lower. That means that following yesterday’s rally, we are expecting the markets to end lower today in order to meet the targets.
The 10-year T-bill yield was another banger. It kept on rising last week, finishing at 2.828, while we predicted it would end up at 2.83. Again, stunning accuracy (0.07% margin of error!). AAPL, Bitcoin, DJI - all three were really, really close. Even TSLA had only a 1% margin of error, which is quite impressive for this otherwise volatile stock. The only miss was the VIX. It did go up since Wednesday, but it finished lower than its Tuesday open, so the verdict is a missed direction.
Once again, as you can see, when market volatility is slightly lower, our accuracy is much higher. This isn’t to say that the markets didn’t have their daily bounces last week - they most certainly did, but the standard deviation was lower.
Profits
Despite such incredible accuracy, the profits were slightly lower simply because the week was shorter. Usually we make our option strategies on Wednesday at market open, so we basically have three days ahead of us for the predictions to materialize. Last week we only had two days, Wed and Thu, so the scope for a profitable iron condor was lower than usual.
On the other hand, a shorter time span meant greater probability of being right. In other words, lower risk - lower potential profits. Exactly what happened last week.
This week we're trading 432/433 to 444/445 SPY 14/04 iron condor (10 contracts) for $310 immediate gain.
We are also trading 5 iron condors for DIA, 336/337 to 344/345, for $340 immediate gain. No AAPL this time, as the iron condors would be too narrow and too risky.
We earned $302 on the SPY, and $237 on the DJI (selling a few hours before expiry to capture the profits). In total, “only” $539 last week, compounding nicely into our aggregate gains of $26,147.
The portfolio is now up 25.7% in 2022 (FYI, in comparison, passive strategies following the S&P are still very much negative for the year).
Overall it is up 161%.
…join the competition!
Participate in our survey competition regularly to get our predictions on Wednesday and take opportunity from our early info on price targets.
NOTE: Remember, by participating in the competition and leaving your email in the user profile, you get our predictions before everyone else (on Wednesday after the markets open). Leaving your email is the only way for us to contact you. If you want it, ofc.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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