Results: Another market sell-off, another BASON profit

Including: video explaining how the competition works

Welcome back dear subscribers! The competition is officially open for week 5 in Q2 2022. The updated leaderboard is available within the app. Get in, have your say on our 5 indicators and 2 stocks, take opportunity from our early info on price targets, and keep pushing for that $2000 prize!

Remember, the FOMC meeting is this week, so take that into account. Good luck :)

Note: If you haven’t already, don’t forget to leave your email after you finish the prediction, so that we can send you early results on Wednesday - see the end of the post.

For all those new to the whole thing, watch this quick video guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works:

Thanks for participating, and keep having fun!

Last week’s accuracy & precision

As we already told you via Twitter when we sold our puts and cashed in on the iron condors, last week was yet another profitable week for BASON. At one point on Friday, about 3 hours before close, we had 7/7 indicators in the right direction and 5/7 within 1% margin of error. The markets kept falling further however, so we missed our S&P and DJI targets, i.e. we pierced through their lower boundaries (just about for DIA, and a bit further for SPY).

Oraclum @OraclumIS

Aaand it's done! What an ending to a volatile week. Broke the lower boundaries at close, but made profits earlier 💪 Until about 3hrs before close, we were 7/7. This is the end result: S&P ❌ 1.67% DJI ❌ 1.58% 10Y ✅ -1.74% BTC ✅ 3.95% VIX ❌-13.3% AAPL ✅ 2.7% TSLA ❌8.1%

Oraclum @OraclumIS

Puts sold! $SPY at $12.8 (bought for $9.27) $DIA at $8.60 (bought at $7.05) Profits: $508 Condors closed (as announced earlier) $SPY iron condor - profit $333 $DIA iron condor - profit $288 Total: $1,129 Waiting for the end of trading to confirm precision :) 🎯 https://t.co/jaiYQR2D45

To be perfectly fair, it was a missed prediction with better accuracy (<2% margin of error) than precision (missed direction) for S&P and DJI, but it was the downward hedge that really delivered.

The puts were rather expensive on Wednesday, survived the Thursday rally, but then delivered as a proper hedge during Friday’s massive sell-off that brought S&P to its YTD low.

Notice again that heightened weekly volatility reduced our precision. The majority of this volatility came on Friday actually, in particular in the last two hours. But still, our benchmark is Friday close, not Friday 2-3 hours before close, so we missed the benchmark but still made money. The BASON therefore did deliver.

Profits: hedges delivered, condors sold on time

Quick Tip: during very volatile weeks, don’t let the condors expire, feel free to close them earlier to take profits.

Last week we sent a tweet about 4,5 hours before Friday’s close advising to buy back the condors and close those trades, but keep holding on to the puts.

We sold the puts three hours later. If we kept the puts on for another hour, we would have made even more, but the point was to take the profits when available, without regrets.

The prediction for last week was:

In terms of the options strategy, we went for the standard SPY 29/04 iron condor, ranging from 416/417 to 429/430 (10 contracts) for $540 immediate gain.

We also traded 10 iron condors for DIA 29/04, 329/330 to 340/341, for
$300 immediate gain.

In addition, we bought 1 put on SPY 29/04 at 430 strike, and 1 put on DIA 29/04 at 342 strike. The reason for this is purely a downward directional hedge.

The SPY put was bought for $9.27 (i.e. $927 for the 100 contracts) and sold for $12.8, while the DIA put was bought for $7.05 (i.e. $705 for the 100 contracts) and sold for $8.60. We made $508 on these two hedges.

The condors were closed at $333 profit for SPY, and $288 profit for DIA.

In total, +$1,129 for the week.

Compounded gains?

• 35.65% in 2022.

• 183% compounded gains since the start of the survey in May 2021.

• That’s $28,265 for an initial $10,000 portfolio.

Now, for the first time since we started the survey, the S&P500 is delivering a negative return, of -1.5% since May 2021. This makes BASON’s 183% all the more impressive!

…join the competition!

Participate in our survey competition regularly to get our predictions on Wednesday and take opportunity from our early info on price targets.

NOTE: Remember, by participating in the competition and leaving your email in the user profile, you get our predictions before everyone else (on Wednesday after the markets open). Leaving your email is the only way for us to contact you. If you want it, ofc.

Within the app, go to ‘Profile’ and you can enter your email there. New features there will include tracking your scores and performance over time. We use your email for two things only: (1) to send you our predictions before they become public, and (2) to contact you if you win.

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.

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