Results: Another week of stellar BASON performance
6/7 called right, profits realized!
Quick summary:
New survey is up & running - click here. (2 more weeks left of the Q2 competition)
Last week’s performance: 6/7 for direction, errors <0.6% for S&P and DJI
Another profitable week for our options strategy
We are up 71% in 2022, while the S&P is down 23%
Welcome back dear subscribers! The competition is officially open for week 12 in Q2 2022. This means only 2 weeks left before we announce our Q2 winner for the $2000 prize. Thus far it’s a close race between three users (full leaderboard available within the app). Good luck!
So get in, have your say on our 5 indicators and 2 stocks, take opportunity from our early info on price targets, and keep pushing for that $2000 prize!
Note: If you haven’t already, don’t forget to leave your email after you finish the prediction, so that we can send you early results on Wednesday - see the end of the post.
For all those new to the whole thing, watch this quick video guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works:
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more info on the BASON, and for additional instructional videos:
Thanks for participating, and keep having fun!
Last week’s accuracy & precision
The sell-off continued last week, marking it the worst weekly performance for markets since the pandemic in March 2020. It left the S&P at below 3,700 (down 23% ytd), the Dow below 30,000 (down 17% ytd), and Nasdaq below 11,000 (down 31% ytd).
No wonder the markets got spooked last week. On Wednesday the Fed announced a 75bps rate hike for the first time since 1994 to tame inflation.
I wrote about what this means for markets and how to position:
Did the BASON correctly predict last week’s decline?
Indeed it did! And with great accuracy. It was almost another 7/7 week, but the VIX failed to shoot up higher than its Tuesday close, so we were left at 6/7 correct directional predictions.
Almost pinpoint accuracy for DJI and S&P.
Performance: biggest gain yet!
We traded 10 SPY 17/06 iron condors, ranging from 363/364 to 378/379 for $620 immediate gain.
In addition, we bought one SPY 379 17/06 put for $7.41 per contract.
Similar play for DIA 17/06, where we traded the following iron condor: 299/300 to 309/310 (10 contracts) for $560 immediate gain, and one DIA 17/06 put at 310 bought for $6.1.
It was an interesting week in terms of trading profits actually. First we gained significantly on Thursday from our puts following the major sell-off after the Fed decision (almost exactly the same thing happened in May btw - a bid higher on Wed, and an even larger sell-off the day after). At the end of Thursday, our DIA condor was a losing position and our SPY condor was dancing on the verge of profitability.
So we had to react by setting stop-loss orders for Friday which got triggered at one point limiting the condor losses at $386. This is interesting since by the end of the day, the indices rebounded and we would have been in the money for both SPY and DIA (as suggested by our low errors).
But either way, we had a profitable week, where the put take-profit orders were also executed and we made $1,129 on the puts.
Altogether, a $743 profit for the week. Not bad.
Performance: up 259% overall, and up 71% in 2022, with S&P500 being down 23% in 2022, and 12% since we started this competition.
Powerful.
…join the competition!
Participate in our survey competition regularly to get our predictions on Wednesday and take opportunity from our early info on price targets.
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DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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