Results: BASON is up 15.8% in 2022
High accuracy and profitable even in a bear market
Welcome back dear subscribers! The competition is officially open for week 8 in Q1 2022. Last week’s leaderboard is available within the app. Get in, have your say on our 5 indicators and 2 stocks, take opportunity from our early info on price targets, and keep pushing for that $2000 prize!
Three more weeks left before the end of Q1 and our first quarterly winners are announced. The race at the top is tight, there can be only one winner:
Note: If you haven’t already, don’t forget to leave your email after you finish the prediction, so that we can send you early results on Wednesday - see the end of the post.
Last week’s volatility was as brutal as every week since the start of 2022. S&P dropped 3% on Monday, continued to decline an additional 0.7% on Tuesday (amidst a mid-day bounce-back attempt), then jumped 2.5% on Wednesday (when we made our predictions), and had another attempt of a bounce-back on Friday before eventually ending up -1.3% for the day. BASON’s S&P prediction remained pretty much within the confidence intervals all the time (see chart below), suggesting a lower finish for Friday compared to its unusual Wed highs. It’s a very “choppy”, highly volatile market, typical for fear-driven bearish sentiment.
And yet, the BASON performed once again. With stunning accuracy.
Our portfolio is now up 15.8% for the year, while the S&P is down 11.5%. How’s that for a hedge in bear markets?
Before jumping into the portfolio, an overview of where we stand with the weekly performance.
Every indicator except the VIX called in the right direction with respect to its Wed high (we made this directional comparison instead of the usual Tuesday close because of the emphasis on buying put options on SPY on Wednesday). The margin of error on 4 indicators was around 1%, and 2.6% for AAPL. All this amidst volatility of 3 and 4% for DJI and S&P, and even greater for all other indicators.
We mentioned last week that all this volatility is not derailing BASON’s performance. On the contrary, BASON is outperforming most asset classes and delivering continued value over the first 7 weeks of this very turbulent year.
Profits for the week!
We made $1343 last week, or about a 52% return on our exposure for the week.
This was the prediction from last Wednesday (public on Thursday):
…we sold 10 412/413 to 429/430 SPY 11/03 contracts (the iron condor), and got an immediate $550 return (10 contracts * 0.55 price * 100 shares). If we fall outside the condor, we lose $450 (there is a 30% stop-loss in place to limit this to $135).
We also bought 2 SPY 11/03 puts for $1050 ($5.25 for each), acting as a hedge in case SPY breaks the lower boundary, but also as a convenient strategy to counter Wednesday’s highs. The standard stop-loss order is also at 30%.
Finally, we got the AAPL iron condor as well, selling 10 contracts of 150/152.5 to 167/167.5 AAPL 11/03 for $420 immediate gain.
The SPY iron condor was within its C.I.s (expired out of the money), we bought it back for a fraction and got a profit of $534. The SPY puts were sold at $6.77 just before trading closed and made us $304 (6.77-5.25=$1.52 for a single contract, times 100 times 2 for both contracts). AAPL iron condor was well within it’s boundaries and ended up giving us a $415 profit.
In total, our portfolio is up 15.8% in 2022. Incredible.
Overall, since we started the survey, we are up 140%.
Bull market - BASON makes money.
Bear market - BASON makes money.
Powerful.
$10,000 invested in the BASON since May last year would have given you $24,046 by now, whereas the same $10,000 invested in S&P500 would have reverted back to where you started, at $10,027 (where a 7.9% inflation keeps diluting that investment further).
…join the competition!
Participate in our survey competition regularly to get our predictions on Wednesday and take opportunity from our early info on price targets.
NOTE: Remember, by participating in the competition and leaving your email in the user profile, you get our predictions before everyone else (on Wednesday after the markets open). Leaving your email is the only way for us to contact you. If you want it, ofc.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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