Results: best week year-to-date
5.7% return last week
Quick summary:
New survey, for Q4 competition, is up & running - click here.
We kept saying last week will be an important one, didn’t we?
The QRA and the FOMC were both massive signals that sent the markets flying.We notified our paid subscribers of this immediately (on Wed and Thu), and the BASON also captured the up move quite well.
We ended the week with a 5.7% return, our best week in 2023.
The next question is whether the rally is sustainable, was it a false dawn, how long could it last, and how we will position for it. More about this later in the week:
The Q4 competition is its sixth week, make sure you jump into the survey. Prizes are as last quarter, $5,000 distributed across the top 20 participants.
Things are shaking up on the leaderboard as well. The bulls took last week by storm!
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, here is a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
The downtrend was emphatically broken last week. Markets rallied 4% after Wednesday’s QRA and FOMC, as we suggested they would. The strength of the rally surprised many. Sure, a lot of it were short squeezes (we closed ours on Wed morning), but a lot was proper buying as well, most likely from institutional accounts.
The Fed paused, as expected, and this pushed some liquidity into the market. But even more importantly, on Wed morning we received a signal that the Treasury was not going to issue a massive new supply of long-term bonds, as was initially feared. The pivot was in place, and the reaction was a strong buy signal. The rally was so strong that an obvious question is whether it’s sustainable or it’s just another false dawn. We will try to answer this on Thursday.
BASON was once again spot on, 6/6 predicted in the right direction. This is the second week in a row we get such good numbers, although much less precise than usual. The up move surprised everyone, but when the direction is right, the returns are substantial for our trading strategy. 5.7% in one week, beating the August 4.9% performance (during those major sell-offs). Long may it continue!
With that week, ORCA is now +12% year-to-date. We made almost 30% since the March lows. The BASON works when you need it the most.
Not a lot of action this week, it’s more likely to be a consolidation week. Some earnings are still left to go (NVDA is the week after, not this one), and we also get jobless claims on Thursday. Plus Powell is in front of Congress this week, on Wednesday and Thursday. Don’t expect too much. Perhaps the only tricky question he might get is whether the Fed is likely to tighten again given that bond yields are no longer doing the job for the Fed.
…join the $20,000 competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($5000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
And, as always, don’t forget to subscribe to the newsletter.