Results: great accuracy despite high volatility

BASON delivers yet another week, up 127% overall

Welcome back dear subscribers! The competition is officially open for week 7 in Q1 2022. Last week’s leaderboard is available within the app. Get in, have your say on our 5 indicators and 2 stocks, take opportunity from our early info on price targets, and keep pushing for that $2000 prize!

Note: If you haven’t already, don’t forget to leave your email after you finish the prediction, so that we can send you early results on Wednesday - see the end of the post)

Last week the markets (S&P & DJI) finished lower than they opened on Monday, but slightly higher than their Tuesday close. There was a rally on Wednesday, followed by two straight drops on Thu and Fri. Despite this volatility the BASON delivered as its S&P and AAPL predictions managed to stay within their confidence intervals. Also, the SPY call options reached their take-profit position on Wednesday’s high.

The BASON correctly called the first 5 indicators, and only missed the direction of AAPL and TSLA. However, given that AAPL’s price target had only a 1.5% margin of error, we were able to make money on its iron condor strategy (see below).

What is great about last week’s precision is the fact that it was achieved amidst very high volatility across all indicators. Usually, when DJI and S&P have >3% volatility, BASON’s precision is lower, and our errors are higher. Not this time though. Once again each indicator had a margin of error much lower than its weekly volatility.

This is good news with respect to the current environment where we see massive volatility each week (the VIX is still hovering around 30, it hasn’t been lower than 20 since the year started). If BASON’s accuracy can remain strong during high volatility periods, this only adds to its robustness, enabling it to perform in all environments.

Profits for the week!

We made $1094 last week, or about a 47% return on our exposure for the week.

This was the prediction from last Wednesday (public on Thursday):

In terms of the options strategy, we sold 10 425/426 to 443/443 SPY 04/03 contracts (the iron condor), and got an immediate $460 (10 contracts * 0.46 price * 100 shares). If we fall outside the condor, we lose $540 (there is a 30% stop-loss in place to limit this to $160).

We also bought 1 SPY 04/03 call for $786, acting as a hedge in case SPY breaks the upper boundary. If it does, we stand to at least double that amount. This is, as usual, a purely directional bet with its standard stop-loss order, this time also at 30%.

Finally, we got the AAPL iron condor as well, selling 10 contracts of 160/162.5 to 170/172.5 AAPL 03/04 for $420 immediate gain.

The SPY iron condor was within its C.I.s (expired out of the money) so we got to keep the full $460. Same for AAPL’s iron condor where we got $420. As for the SPY 04/03 call, it was sold automatically at its take-profit position of $10, so the total profit was ($10 * 1 * 100) - ($7.86 *1 * 100) = $214. Altogether, $1094.

In total, our portfolio is up 6.75% in 2022 (while the markets are still down >10%). This translates to $2045. Overall, since we started the survey, we are up 127%.

$10,000 invested in the BASON since May last year would have given you $22,703 by now, whereas the same $10,000 invested in S&P500 would have given you $10,324.

…join the competition!

Participate in our survey competition regularly to get our predictions on Wednesday and take opportunity from our early info on price targets.

NOTE: Remember, by participating in the competition and leaving your email in the user profile, you get our predictions before everyone else (on Wednesday after the markets open). Leaving your email is the only way for us to contact you. If you want it, ofc.

Within the app, go to ‘Profile’ and you can enter your email there. New features there will include tracking your scores and performance over time. We use your email for two things only: (1) to send you our predictions before they become public, and (2) to contact you if you win.

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.

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