Results: high precision, low accuracy
Getting warmed up
Quick summary:
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Last week’s performance was a miss in direction, but ended up precise (within our usual 2%) for the two most important indicators, SPX and DJI.
No big wins yet, but we’re just getting started!
Today is the CPI report; how will the markets shape up for the rest of the week?
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Last week’s performance
The week started with Powell’s speech on Tuesday which created a yo-yo effect: markets went up rapidly during the speech, dropped like a stone over the next hour, only to bounce right back and finished even higher (!).
Then the fun started for us :)
Our predictions (see below) expected lower intraweek volatility, with markets ending up at around the same level of Wed open.
Wednesday was starting as a down day, so we waited to position towards the end of the day, confident in our prediction. The gap at the open on Thursday confirmed our predictions and was very beneficial initially, as it enabled us to raise the stop-losses on the calls to breakeven. This was reached soon afterwards on the same day, so no biggie there.
Then the markets continued to drop, ending up around the lower boundary of our condor confidence interval. It was dancing around those levels the entire Friday, but eventually finished within the intervals.
All in all, we got in lower than what we expected. High precision, low accuracy.
Or in the words of our standard precision table, it was a miss in direction (low accuracy), but decent precision for the indicators that matter:
Technically, we could say that our direction on both S&P and DJI was right as it did suggest a slightly lower level for both than their Wed open, but that would be a big stretch (hence the asterisk). We played call positions on Wed given that the Wed decline in markets suggested that we have decent wiggle room to play our signal. It did work briefly on Thursday, and we prevented any losses for the positions, so that in itself is a good thing. No big wins yet, but we’re just getting started!
This next week we are starting with the CPI report that comes out today, so expect high volatility initially. Will it ease out by the end of the week? Will the initial reaction today reverse by Friday? You tell us!
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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