Results: markets down🔻, ORCA up ✅
Riding the downtrend
Quick summary:
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The overall market trend remained bearish last week: we got lower lows and the breaking of critical support levels. Adding to this were negative reactions to earnings, specifically to NFLX on Friday.
We tend to benefit from market downturns, and although last week wasn’t ideal for us, we still were able to profit by almost 2% for the week.
We get core PCE inflation this Friday, but more importantly, this is one of the crucial earnings weeks coming up (we covered why and what to watch for in the paid section on Saturday). We get TSLA today, META on Wed, and MSFT and GOOGL on Thu (all after close).
Don’t miss this Saturday’s paid section, as we talk about our strategies for the upcoming Treasury QRA decision and FOMC next week.
The competition
The leaderboard shows solid results, with strong numbers especially in SPX and QQQ predictions. Our top 10 this week are doing well despite a bit of a market shake-up. That’s the idea, stay in front of the curve!
Consistency is key to staying in the top. And good predictions, obviously.
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
Last week it was all about volatility due to several factors including the anticipated Bitcoin halving, earnings reports from key firms like Netflix and several big banks, plus the geopolitical tensions following an Israeli attack on Iran. Despite positive earnings from major financial institutions and a quick recovery in markets from geopolitical shocks, the overall market sentiment remained bearish as indicated by technical patterns like lower lows and the breach of important support levels. Moreover, Netflix's sharp decline post-earnings despite surpassing expectations highlighted investor concerns about future growth, underscoring the cautious mood that dominated the market throughout the week.
The BASON signal was down for the week, and it got it right. Unfortunately, the few swings prevented us from fully capitalizing on the decline, so we managed only a bit less than 2% gains last week.
Still, this puts us on a very nice path, as last week SPX closed on 4.2% ytd, NASDAQ at 1.8% ytd, while ORCA went up to 15.4% ytd. So far, so good!
This week, the focus is on earnings from 4 of the Mag7 stocks: TSLA, META, MSFT, GOOGL.
On Saturday, we explained to our subscribers why these are so important, particularly for META and MSFT, as their earnings beat or miss could considerably drive the market.
And if that’s not exciting enough, on Friday we get the Fed’s preferred inflation number, the PCE inflation, gearing us up for FOMC next Wednesday. We are down to only 1 cut being projected for 2024 (down from 7 cut projections only a few months ago), and that being for September 2024.
A more dovish Fed will push those expectations right back up, but a more dovish Fed is highly contingent upon inflation data. And also where the market will be after Mag7 earnings.
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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