Results: our second losing week in Q2

Still up 66% in 2022

Quick summary:

• New survey is up & running - click here.

• After a few stellar weeks, time for a pullback

• We lost money on the calls and the condors

• We are still up 66% in 2022, while the S&P is down 18%

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Welcome back dear subscribers! The competition is officially open for four last week in Q2, week 13. This means we announce the winner of our Q2 competition this week, and award them the $2000 cash prize.

Still a close race at the top (full leaderboard available within the app). Good luck!

So get in, have your say on our 5 indicators and 2 stocks, take opportunity from our early info on price targets, and keep pushing for that $2000 prize!

Note: If you haven’t already, don’t forget to leave your email after you finish the prediction, so that we can send you early results on Wednesday - see the end of the post.

For all those new to the whole thing, watch this quick video guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works:

Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more info on the BASON, and for additional instructional videos:

Thanks for participating, and keep having fun!

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Last week’s accuracy & precision

Last week was another bear market rally, where markets rallied 6% to 9%. We went through at least three of these in 2022 thus far, two of which we got through OK. Not last week though.

As much as we benefited during downturns in the previous week, last week we lost money. If you recall, I had this to say when we published the predictions:

For the record I expressed some doubt in these prediction numbers, but as I’ve learned time and time again in this survey - don’t go against the BASON :) Even if it’s wrong, I’d rather follow it and be wrong a few times, then go against it and miss a good return.

So yeah, my doubts were substantiated, but I decided to trust the process instead. That’s the point of this whole competition and testing of our methodology - to trust the process no matter what. Thus far, it’s been more than rewarding for us. So, can’t complain :)

In terms of BASON’s performance, here are the numbers:

Quite good for BTC, decent for the 10-year and the VIX. Interestingly, the VIX was predicted to be lower, despite an anticipated lower level for the S&P. Volatility is still not as nearly as high as it should be during bear market sell-offs. Probably because this sell-off is ordinary and gradual.

Anyway, big misses for the S&P and Dow, and both of our stocks, AAPL and TSLA. Will be interesting to see what’s the prediction going to be for this week.

Performance: biggest gain yet!

How did we trade this?

As per our predictions, we traded 10 SPY 24/06 iron condors, ranging from 363/364 to 378/379 for $540 immediate gain.

In addition, we bought one SPY 379 24/06 put for $7.35 per contract. Currently a losing position.

Similar play for DIA 24/06, where we traded the following iron condor: 297/298 to 307/308 (10 contracts) for $450 immediate gain, and one DIA 24/06 put at 308 bought for $5.6.

As stated, we lost a total of $1,076 last week. $570 on the condors and $506 on the puts. We waited for too long for the sell-off to commence, by which time it was too late to get out of the positions early enough to limit the losses further.

Either way, this sets us back only by a small margin. Our annual performance is back down to 66% gains for the year, and 248% overall, while the S&P is down 18% for the year, and 6% since we started this competition.

…join the competition!

Participate in our survey competition regularly to get our predictions on Wednesday and take opportunity from our early info on price targets.

NOTE: Remember, by participating in the competition and leaving your email in the user profile, you get our predictions before everyone else (on Wednesday after the markets open). Leaving your email is the only way for us to contact you. If you want it, ofc.

Within the app, go to ‘Profile’ and you can enter your email there. New features there will include tracking your scores and performance over time. We use your email for two things only: (1) to send you our predictions before they become public, and (2) to contact you if you win.

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.

And, as always, don’t forget to subscribe to the newsletter!