Results: Q3 opened with a small loss
Albeit a limited one. Still up 69% in 2022
Quick summary:
New survey is up & running - click here.
After so much bragging on Tuesday, we had to be punished :)
Our first week in Q3 opened with a miss and a limited loss
We are still up 69% in 2022, while the S&P is down 19%
Welcome back dear subscribers! The competition is officially open for week 2 in Q3 2022. The new leaderboard is available within the app. Get in, have your say on our 5 indicators and 2 stocks, take opportunity from our early info on price targets, and keep pushing for that $2000 prize!
Note: If you haven’t already, don’t forget to leave your email after you finish the prediction, so that we can send you early results on Wednesday - see the end of the post.
For all those new to the whole thing, watch this quick video guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works:
Thanks for participating, and keep having fun!
Last week’s accuracy & precision
It doesn’t happen often, but it happens, sometimes. All 7 indicators called in the wrong direction, with only the DJI prediction falling within the usual 2% error.
Serves us right for bragging so much last week :)
Weekly volatility was elevated last week, affecting our precision for each indicator. This was the type of week where the high-low range was too big for us to successfully make a profit, especially with the missed direction.
However, the benefit from last week was a better trading strategy which limited our losses even more than before, thus enabling us to achieve a better positive asymmetry. Read more below.
Performance: limited loss, good asymmetry
We traded 372/373 to 386/387 SPY 08/07 as-if iron condor (10 contracts) for $480 immediate gain. But as emphasized, we bought separately the bull put spread (372/373), and the bear call spread (386/387), placing a 50% stop-loss on each strategy.
We also bought an ITM put for downside protection, 1 SPY 386p 08/07 for $6.69.
Same thing for DIA, 304/305 to 313/314 DIA 08/07 (10 contracts) for $420 immediate gain, with separate put (304/305) and call legs (313/314).
And one ITM put, DIA 08/07 313p for $4.5.
Splitting the legs worked quite well in limiting the loss positions for the account. The bear call spread (386/387) for SPY delivered a $310 loss (capped at 50%), but the bull put spread (372/373) delivered a $167 profit (it benefited from Thursday’s rally primarily, but was sold early on Friday).
DIA finished within the boundaries, barely, so both legs delivered a profit. The bull put spread (304/305) delivered a $311 profit, while the bear call spread (313/314) delivered a $98 profit.
The calls lost money, limited to $341 for SPY, and $230 for DIA.
Overall, we only lost $305 in a week where everything went against us. Not bad for a losing strategy :)
If we got it right, the profits would have been over $1500. So a very good asymmetry in our favor.
This sets us back only by a small margin. Our annual performance is back down to 69% gains for the year, and 247% overall, while the S&P is down 19% for the year, and 7% since we started this competition.
…join the competition!
Participate in our survey competition regularly to get our predictions on Wednesday and take opportunity from our early info on price targets.
NOTE: Remember, by participating in the competition and leaving your email in the user profile, you get our predictions before everyone else (on Wednesday after the markets open). Leaving your email is the only way for us to contact you. If you want it, ofc.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
And, as always, don’t forget to subscribe to the newsletter!