Results: the sideways regime continues
Plus a quick portfolio update
Quick summary:
New survey, for Q4 competition, is up & running - click here.
Yet another range-bound week (expected due to Thanksgiving), however this time a small gain for the ORCA portfolio, mostly due to the macro positions. Not much from the BASON.
No big moves last week after NVDA earnings. This week, it should be more interesting. We get core PCE inflation on Thursday, and a few Fed speakers throughout the week.
A quick portfolio positioning update available at the end for our paid subscribers:
The Q4 competition is entering its ninth week. Almost there, 4 more weeks to go after this one in December, so make sure to end the year at a high! Prizes are as last quarter, $5,000 distributed across the top 20 participants.
After 8 weeks thus far this is what it looks like:
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, here is a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
By now you should all be familiar with why and how the markets rallied since Nov 1st. The lower than expected QRA, followed by another Fed pause sent the markets up almost instantly that first week. It kept growing ever since, but with very slow progression. First it took it 11 days to grow only 1.65%, then it took a 2% jump due to CPI, and then again a period of consolidation and 1.9% growth in 14 days (with 0% growth over the past 8 days).
On aggregate, since Nov 1st both equities and bonds made considerable gains, but most of those gains came immediately, after which the market took a long time to consolidate. We made great profits in that first week and have stagnated pretty much since. This is expected of BASON (even though we have been working on how to make gains even in such sideways times, still in R&D).
The main question is how long could this continue? Will the rally gain further steam after this week’s PCE, and turn into a Santa rally, or will the markets suffer another correction? Or are we simply going to keep crawling up for the next 4 weeks?
Let us know in the survey, happy to have you on board: