Santa rally, or bust?

Bull view for 2025 coming up on Saturday.

• The Q4 competition is up & running, four weeks left to go - click here to join the action. Note: we will have the Christmas week active, as market is open on Thu and Fri. The survey will be open until Christmas Day, Wed, 25th, 8am ET, as usual.

• In 2024 the S&P 500 surged 27%, gold went up 28.8%, and NVIDIA's stock soared by 187%, indicating that the bull market is strong, albeit skewed towards big tech.

• Last week was shorter and as we indicated last Tuesday, subject to a potential vol compression, sending markets up on Black Friday. It broke through all time highs. We benefited from this single day move.

• This week's focus is on November employment data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials, essential for evaluating the labor market's strength or signs of slowing as the year concludes. The week after we get CPI, and then in two weeks FOMC. Santa rally; already priced in or we just getting started?

• Our first 2025 prediction series is coming up on Saturday, the bull 🐂 view. Don’t miss it!

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The competition

With the release of November employment data and anticipate final comments from Federal Reserve officials this week, it's a prime opportunity to align our strategies for the year's end.

NOTE: four more weeks are left, and we will have the Christmas week active, as market is open on Thu and Fri. The survey will be open until Christmas Day, Wed, 25th, 8am ET, as usual, so you will be able to make your predictions. We will place our positions the following day.

The survey will be closed in the first week of the new year, and will reopen on the 7th of January.

Keep your strategies sharp and your eyes on the top!

NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.

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Last week’s performance

As we approach the year-end, our analysis remains rooted in a pragmatic approach to the markets. With the SPX potentially closing the year at an all-time high of 6,200, we continue to hold a positive outlook for the final quarter, bolstered by strong underlying macroeconomic indicators and corporate performances, particularly in the tech sector.

However caution is always advised. Last week we saw, as announced, a vol compression, which triggered a slight rally on Friday. This led to a breakout into all time highs, so this week we should see whether it consolidates, and continues going up, or it was a false breakout.

This week, spotlight is on the upcoming November employment data due Friday, expected to clarify whether the labor market retains its robustness or shows further signs of slowing. Preceding this, indicators such as job openings and private-sector employment reports will shed light on employment trends. Additionally, insights from a whole host of Fed speakers, including Powell, in their final remarks before the Fed’s December meeting blackout period, will be pivotal in shaping expectations for future monetary policies.

Good luck for the rest of the competition!

…join the $20,000 competition!

Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($5000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:

DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.

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