Shorter week, vol compression
Happy Thanksgiving!
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NOTE: this week is Thanksgiving week, so markets are closed on Thursday and open for half a day on Friday (closes at 1:00 pm ET on Friday). So please be aware of this when making this week’s predictions.
Last week NVDA had a great earnings report, but was again selling off afterwards, given that the beat was not as big as hoped for. The rest of the market went up as we are witnessing some dispersion (from NVDA into small caps for example).
PCE inflation index for October and the first revision of Q3 GDP expected on Wednesday.
On Saturday, we are doing an overview of the good predictions made thus far.
The competition
The PCE inflation index and Q3 GDP revision are coming out on Wednesday, and insights from the November FOMC meeting minutes are available today, so this will probably be the main things affecting markets this shortened week. Do keep in mind that markets are closed on Thursday, and only opened for half a day on Friday. Volatility will probably be lower, but not necessarily.
Keep your strategies sharp and your eyes on the top!
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Last week’s performance
As reported last week, despite NVIDIA's impressive earnings beat of 5.6% last quarter, the stock sold off again, signaling the high expectations built into its market valuation. On the other hand, SPX bounced back strongly on Thursday despite the initial turbulence and finished the week once again back on its trajectory into all time highs. It penetrated through 6000 once again yesterday, but failed to sustain. For now.
We had a decent week where we captured some profits and made 1.2% for our investors at ORCA.
This week, markets face a shortened trading schedule with Thanksgiving on Thursday and an early close for bond markets on Friday. Key economic updates will take center stage on Wednesday, including the release of the PCE inflation index for October, expected to offer fresh insights into inflation trends which last reported nearly at the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Additionally, the first revision of the third-quarter GDP, initially estimated at a 2.8% growth rate, will be closely scrutinized.
Today, the Federal Reserve's November meeting minutes will be released, providing further details on the recent quarter-point rate cut and potential future monetary policy shifts.
Happy Thanksgiving to all of our US readers!
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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