Still dancing around 695
Quick summary:
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Selling attempts failed to break the 100-day MA last week, leaving the market stuck near the highs and setting up a week that feels more about resolution than direction.
Price is once again pressing into a familiar decision zone near 695, an area that has repeatedly mattered and is back in focus.
Momentum has cooled without breaking structure, raising the question of whether this pause leads to continuation or something more sideways.
With key macro data on deck (CPI on Friday), how price reacts at these levels may matter more than the headlines themselves.
Charts: consolidation near key levels
Early attempts to push the market lower did not gain much traction last week as SPY bounced off its 100-day MA (see below, blue line), and price has continued to sit near the upper end of the recent range. There has been no decisive rejection from the highs, and the overall structure has remained largely unchanged.
The problem was once again volume - note how volume went up on selling days and was much lower on the push back up (Fri and Mon), signifying in particular short squeezes rather than actual market strength.
Even after that bounce back last week, price is again hovering just below the recent highs, with the 695 area remaining the primary reference level. This zone has capped upside several times, yet price has not been pushed away aggressively, suggesting buyers are still present. Before we break above and confirm (meaning up-down-up with full body candles on the way back up), we’re gonna stay stuck in a range.
Momentum remains supportive but has slowed. The 4-hour MACD is still positive, though no longer accelerating, which argues for patience rather than urgency. As long as price holds above the prior consolidation area, pullbacks appear more corrective than structural.
Where does risk begin to show up?
A sustained move back below the prior consolidation zone would be the first meaningful sign that this setup is losing momentum. If that happens, attention shifts to whether that level can be reclaimed or starts acting as resistance again.
With price sitting near key technical levels, incoming macro data this week may influence short-term behavior. Delayed releases covering jobs, inflation, and retail sales should help clarify whether recent trends in the labor market and consumer demand are continuing. CPI index gets published on Friday. Earnings focus remains on the largest technology names, where results may shape expectations around growth and AI spending. Outside of those, individual company reports are likely to remain secondary, with markets reacting more to how data aligns with price at these levels.
The competition
As price digests recent gains near key levels, top spots in the leaderboard remain steady, while the rest of the field continues to sort itself out.
Stay focused and keep climbing the ranks!
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