Straight up.
>3% last week, best week since March.
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Following the U.S. election, markets experienced a significant rally, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ rising 5% and 6%.
The 'Red Sweep' scenario unfolded as expected, indicating potential upcoming policy changes such as tax cuts and stricter immigration controls.
October CPI, PPI, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech, and retail sales data will provide insights into inflation trends this week.
The competition
After the FOMC decision and U.S. election results, we're heading into another significant week filled with economic updates and Fed speeches. Let's use this opportunity to advance our positions on the leaderboard as we approach the year's end.
Keep your strategies sharp and your eyes on the top!
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
Markets surged in response to the U.S. election outcome and the FOMC's decision to cut rates by 25bps, both of which was anticipated by markets in the prior weeks. Following the election, markets rallied 2.5%, validating our prediction of a strong bounce as volatility subsided (VIX down, SPX up). This momentum carried throughout the week, resulting in a 5% increase for the S&P 500 and a 6% boost for NASDAQ, with significant performances in tech and banking sectors, Tesla in particular (the “Musk trade”). Crypto also rallied heavily as BTC went over $80,000 on Monday.
The bond market saw fluctuations, initially dipping and then rebounding to close the week flat. The USD strengthened, while commodities like gold and oil declined. The 'Red Sweep' scenario played out as anticipated, setting the stage for potential policy shifts under Trump’s administration, including tax cuts and tighter immigration controls, which could stoke inflation but also drive nominal GDP growth. This complex backdrop could prompt the Fed to reconsider the extent of future rate cuts amidst rising inflationary pressures.
The SPX notably hit 6,000, weeks ahead of expectations, reflecting strong market confidence. For us, it was a straight up week like we didn’t see in a while, so we secured an over 3% return last week for our investors. It was our best week since March.
This week, the focus shifts to the latest economic data and Federal Reserve commentary. With U.S. bond markets closed on Monday for Veterans Day, key updates will follow, especially the October CPI on Wednesday, a vital inflation measure that could sway Fed policies. Thursday will spotlight a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, offering deeper insights into the Fed's economic perspective, as well as the PPI numbers before open. Additionally, Friday's retail sales data will provide a critical snapshot of consumer spending, essential for gauging market expectations and the broader economic trajectory.
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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yes .... thanks to Trump .... LOL .... now we will see if he will start the economy with his policy after taking over or if he will only start inflation - the war in Ukraine will certainly not stop as he boasted, he will certainly put Israel and Taiwan on standby, he is most "tickled" by China and immigrants, who are apparently "connected to the US Budget as a bloodsucker", similar to those in the EU, and the mass of them do nothing except that their trade is "petty crime".