The Q1 2023 competition is officially open!
Welcome back!
Welcome back dear subscribers.
After a month and a half of pause (for obvious reasons!), we are back with our new survey competition for 2023. We announced this 10 days ago, when we also told you about all the new things you can expect this year.
A quick recap of what’s new:
The award structure: the more we make, the more you get! $5000 for top 20 each quarter, and 3% of the Fund’s profits to top 20 at the end of the year.
New website (as of Q2) and two leaderboards (quarterly, and annual - to be live when we launch our new competition website - TBC)
Adding QQQ, removing BTC and TSLA
Rewarding you only for: SPX, DJI, QQQ, and VIX
Lower punishment points
No more Wed emails and Thu posts on the BASON signal
Read more about each of these here:
The survey is now open, so jump right in:
For all those new to the whole thing, watch this quick video guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works:
Watch more on our YouTube channel. Thanks for participating, and keep having fun!
A quick overview of market conditions
An interesting week is in front of us. The FOMC meeting is today, meaning that Powell’s speech is tomorrow, a few hours before the end of trading. As we gotten used to by now, over the course of last year, every FOMC meeting was important as a signal of potential change in monetary policy due to the stickier than expected inflation. And every Powell speech moved markets significantly.
The market conditions thus far, in January, seemed to have been pricing in a lower expected increase of interest rates (25bps instead of 50bps over the next two FOMC meetings), and then no more hikes this year. Furthermore, the markets expect the Fed to start lowering rates before the end of the year (expecting a recession trigger sooner rather than later), while the Fed is adamant it will keep rates “higher for longer” throughout this year.
In the macro context of this year, inflation has started its gradual decline, as demand is contracting with high interest rates. Last year’s strong dollar certainly hurt company earnings (the results are mixed thus far), so the bear case is (at least) another leg down as the markets start to price in a recession. The bull case is a soft landing: the Fed is done hiking, inflation is down (it was temporary after all!), and growth won’t be adversely affected, so we avoid a recession. Then there is also China reopenning and the question of whether this will be as inflationary as the West reopenning in 2021. Exciting year ahead.
But for this week, the question is how will the market react to the Fed announcement? As always, you tell us :)
…join the competition!
Participate in our survey competition regularly to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($5000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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