Was curious about BASON so watched a few videos to understand what it is :). My question here is it maybe a great innovation when it comes to surveys, predicting results etc that have a human element to it. But, stock prices are literally a random walk right?. How can you predict a stock price based on social network intelligence gathering?. Hope I have not offended you. Best Regards!.
Hi, sorry for the late response. There's a huge literature discussing that issue. Stocks are often said to be fundamentally unpredictable, and yet there are algos that refute that hypothesis in real time, but mostly for short-term or very short-term time horizons, particularly when they're driven by sentiment and emotion. We have no special ability. The only thing we do is look at what many traders think about prices that week. Bulls vs bears, and their social networks are used to reduce their groupthink bias. It's the same thing we used for elections - one person's vote doesn't mean anything. But understanding how people around you vote could give you an idea of what's happening. Similar to market movements. A single person won't be right. But a group might be.
hm, what is the capital requirement? I trade options all the time through IBKR, no one asked me for any capital requirement. Also, I'm quite sure the retail traders on Robinhood trade options with relatively small holdings - judging from the screenshots they post of only a few thousand bucks (hence the example I've used with a $10k portfolio where a $215 put would suffice).
What happens in a sideways market when you take on protection and the put hedge erodes the portfolio?. What conditions should the put hedge be taken on? I think not all the time but only when certain conditions are met? What might be those conditions?.
Generally, when entering bear markets. You don’t buy the same kind of exposure in bull markets. For example I went in for the insurance as of November last year. Sold it in Dec and bought a new one (lost money there, but less than the exposure), and did the same thing on Monday this week (for a profit due to a turbulent Jan).
If you keep it all the time, it means you will slowly bleed each month until a crash happens, but then you make a killing. That’s why you do a bit of risk-on during bull runs and don’t buy the insurance. But when things start looking bad (like with the anticipated Fed rate hikes) you go for the insurance just to feel safe.
The crucial point here is that the loss is limited to only a very small part of your porftolio. This is crash insurance. If the crash happens, you’re covered. You stay alive.
If it doesn’t and markets go up, you’re still fine despite losing this small part. Yes, it’s a pure loss, but the loss is limited and under your control.
We could argue the same for insurance in general. You pay premiums to insure yourself against things you hope never happen. But when they do happen, you’re covered. So think of this as a necessary cost of capital when approaching the peak of the bubble or entering bear markets.
You’re right that volatility is key here. If markets are anemic and move sideways for the whole year, then yes, you will bleed slowly each month, but are still covered in case of a crash.
less granular but simpler is exposure via TAIL ETF (in the US at least)
Was curious about BASON so watched a few videos to understand what it is :). My question here is it maybe a great innovation when it comes to surveys, predicting results etc that have a human element to it. But, stock prices are literally a random walk right?. How can you predict a stock price based on social network intelligence gathering?. Hope I have not offended you. Best Regards!.
Hi, sorry for the late response. There's a huge literature discussing that issue. Stocks are often said to be fundamentally unpredictable, and yet there are algos that refute that hypothesis in real time, but mostly for short-term or very short-term time horizons, particularly when they're driven by sentiment and emotion. We have no special ability. The only thing we do is look at what many traders think about prices that week. Bulls vs bears, and their social networks are used to reduce their groupthink bias. It's the same thing we used for elections - one person's vote doesn't mean anything. But understanding how people around you vote could give you an idea of what's happening. Similar to market movements. A single person won't be right. But a group might be.
Just seeing this response. Great reply. Makes sense to me. Thanks for replying!.
What would be an option to protect the portfolio for small investors that doesnt have the capital required from the broker to fullfill a put position?
hm, what is the capital requirement? I trade options all the time through IBKR, no one asked me for any capital requirement. Also, I'm quite sure the retail traders on Robinhood trade options with relatively small holdings - judging from the screenshots they post of only a few thousand bucks (hence the example I've used with a $10k portfolio where a $215 put would suffice).
What happens in a sideways market when you take on protection and the put hedge erodes the portfolio?. What conditions should the put hedge be taken on? I think not all the time but only when certain conditions are met? What might be those conditions?.
Generally, when entering bear markets. You don’t buy the same kind of exposure in bull markets. For example I went in for the insurance as of November last year. Sold it in Dec and bought a new one (lost money there, but less than the exposure), and did the same thing on Monday this week (for a profit due to a turbulent Jan).
If you keep it all the time, it means you will slowly bleed each month until a crash happens, but then you make a killing. That’s why you do a bit of risk-on during bull runs and don’t buy the insurance. But when things start looking bad (like with the anticipated Fed rate hikes) you go for the insurance just to feel safe.
The crucial point here is that the loss is limited to only a very small part of your porftolio. This is crash insurance. If the crash happens, you’re covered. You stay alive.
If it doesn’t and markets go up, you’re still fine despite losing this small part. Yes, it’s a pure loss, but the loss is limited and under your control.
We could argue the same for insurance in general. You pay premiums to insure yourself against things you hope never happen. But when they do happen, you’re covered. So think of this as a necessary cost of capital when approaching the peak of the bubble or entering bear markets.
You’re right that volatility is key here. If markets are anemic and move sideways for the whole year, then yes, you will bleed slowly each month, but are still covered in case of a crash.
Thank you for your detailed response. Makes sense to me.