Fascinating article. This changes my perspective significantly. I thought that the rising prices had a multivariate explanation, but my intuition was that it was at least 50:50 :: printing : supply chain issues. However , according to this, it's just supply chain.
This makes me weirdly optimistic, because it implies that our institutions aren't causing great harm by pursuing insane policies, rather that the problem is in the actual physical world.
Amazing article! If Fed clearly expresses when and by how much they plan to raise rates this year, and if mildly, the market will react positively as the market participants hate uncertainty. These mild rate hikes could count on global chain issue easing in 2022, with lower inflation leading to avert recession. I can imagine stalling big hikes, even postponing them to 2023. From markets' standpoint, with the difference T10Y2Y not yet crossing the zero line, I assume there may be some time in upcoming months to "predict" whether a market crash will happen soon.
true, the uncertainty was hurting markets and driving volatility throughout the last month and a half. And probably still will until the Fed finally sends a clear policy signal
They'll have to do something by March. A rate rise of 25 to 50bps is imminent. The question is only how often they might do it this year, and how the bond market will react
Great article. More insightful than a lot of the macro-economic chatter these days :)
Fascinating article. This changes my perspective significantly. I thought that the rising prices had a multivariate explanation, but my intuition was that it was at least 50:50 :: printing : supply chain issues. However , according to this, it's just supply chain.
This makes me weirdly optimistic, because it implies that our institutions aren't causing great harm by pursuing insane policies, rather that the problem is in the actual physical world.
Thank you! Glad you've found it useful.
Amazing article! If Fed clearly expresses when and by how much they plan to raise rates this year, and if mildly, the market will react positively as the market participants hate uncertainty. These mild rate hikes could count on global chain issue easing in 2022, with lower inflation leading to avert recession. I can imagine stalling big hikes, even postponing them to 2023. From markets' standpoint, with the difference T10Y2Y not yet crossing the zero line, I assume there may be some time in upcoming months to "predict" whether a market crash will happen soon.
true, the uncertainty was hurting markets and driving volatility throughout the last month and a half. And probably still will until the Fed finally sends a clear policy signal
So, perhaps the Fed can just talk about rising the FFR, but actually do "nada" and just keep an eye on Baltic Index?
They'll have to do something by March. A rate rise of 25 to 50bps is imminent. The question is only how often they might do it this year, and how the bond market will react
yep; they don't want recession; especially for Biden's sake