Predictions for Friday, August 26th 2022
Quick summary:
Markets expected to finish lower this week post Jackson Hole tomorrow
Trading SPY condors at 402/403 to 417/418 and SPY put at 417
Trading DIA condors at 321/322 to 331/332 and DIA put at 321
No separate legs this time, just the regular old iron condors
Watch this tutorial video to see how we trade this and how to
interpret our predictions:
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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, August 26th 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.
Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:
NOTE: The TSLA prediction didn’t take into account the stock split happening today. Therefore the target price is 878/3 = 292, with a lower expected direction by Friday.
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is scheduled on Friday. After a drop on Monday, and lackluster Tuesday and Wednesday, our predictions are anticipating a negative effect after Powell’s speech. Perhaps this is the catalyst we’ve been waiting for? Or will the markets greet this with yet another spiral of enthusiasm in the search of a Fed pivot?
BASON says lower. The markets today are trending higher. We shall see :)
How did we trade this?
As per our predictions, this week we're trading 402/403 to 417/418 SPY 26/08 iron condor (10 contracts) for $420 immediate gain. No separate legs this time, because the asymmetry was again unfavorable. Stop loss is at 50% (around $270 max).
We are buying a put for downside protection, 1 SPY 417 put 26/08 for $5.9 per contract.
For DIA we are trading the following iron condor: 321/322 to 331/332 DIA 26/08 (10 contracts) for $350 immediate gain. We are also buying 1 DIA 26/08 321 put for $3.85. Stop loss is at 50% for all.
In addition, we are buying 100 UVXY contracts (note that we changed the VIX EFT that we're buying), at $9.80 per share. 5% stop-loss. The explanation is here.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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