Predictions for Friday, February 11th 2022

NOTE: If you wish to get our updates immediately on Wednesday as the market opens, make sure to fill out the prediction survey on Tuesday (and leave your email WITHIN THE APP - click on the link to see how). We reward our participants with early indications of where the market will end up. Everyone else gets the results a day and a half later.

Thanks for following us, feel free to share to your friends:

Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, February 11th 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.

Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:

Last week we were very bullish, and slightly missed our estimate. This week it’s a bit more conservative, but still relatively bullish, particularly in terms of the Dow, S&P, AAPL, and the anticipated slight decrease of the 10Y T-bill and the VIX.

In terms of the options strategy, we sold 10 446/447 to 459/460 SPY 11/02 contracts (the iron condor), and got an immediate $480 (10 contracts * 0.48 price * 100 shares). If we fall outside the condor, we lose $520.

We also, as always, bought 1 SPY 11/02 calls for $950, acting as a hedge in case SPY breaks the upper boundary.

However, this time, given our experience over the previous two weeks, we added an additional layer of protection. We’ve added a take-profit order to our SPY position. We ended Wednesday with $250 profit on the SPY calls (26.3%), and have decided to take profits when/if SPY starts falling on Thursday, picking up at least a $200 profit.

Over the previous two weeks we had gains on Wed that were completely wiped out on Thu before a Fri bounce-back. But the Thu declines in both cases activated our stop-loss so we failed to take any profits. This will be avoided this time, even if the profits are limited. However, this only happens if Thu faces yet another sell-off (e.g. because of the new CPI report).

Our expected gain is around $800 if we hit the target (activating our take-profit), and about $700 if SPY overshoots. The losses this time are limited to only $520 (-$200 profit from call) = $320 if we fall outside the iron condor again.

Finally, we also bought two AAPL 11/02 calls at 170 strike for $1,104. This one is likely to deliver between $300 and $400 profit if we hit our target.

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.

Keep following us on Twitter to stay informed about the weekly survey each Tuesday.