Predictions for Friday, February 18th 2022

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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, February 18th 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.

Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:

Unlike the previous two weeks, this time the BASON is bearish. We expect both major indices, both stocks, and BTC to end up lower than their Tuesday close values (note that we’ve replaced Tue open with Tue close - we feel it’s more fair this way, as more users make their predictions after markets close on Tue - so that is the figure they’re going with when making their predictions).

In terms of the options strategy, we sold 10 434/435 to 447/448 SPY 18/02 contracts (the iron condor), and got an immediate $540 (10 contracts * 0.54 price * 100 shares). If we fall outside the condor, we lose $460.

We also bought 1 SPY 18/02 put for $820, acting as a hedge in case SPY breaks the lower boundary. This is a purely directional bet.

Once again, in addition to the stop-loss positions we added an additional layer of protection - the take-profit order to our SPY position.

Our expected gain is around $800 if we hit the target (activating our take-profit), and about $700 if SPY overshoots. The losses this time are limited to only $460 (-$200 profit from the put) = $260 if we fall outside the iron condor again.

Finally, we decided to play the iron condor for AAPL as well. We sold 10 contracts of 162.5/165 to 175/177.5 AAPL 18/02 for a $440 immediate gain, risking a max of $620 (less with stop-loss) if it falls out this C.I. (notice that the supply of AAPL contracts is much lower compared to SPY - that’s normal given that SPY liquidity is huge compared to even AAPL, let alone other stocks).

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.

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