Quick summary:

Predicting markets to go down again this week
Trading SPY condors at 365/366 to 378/379 and SPY put at 379
Trading DIA condors at 297/298 to 307/308 and DIA put at 308
Watch this tutorial video to see how we trade this and how to
interpret our predictions:

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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, June 24th 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.

Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:

Overall, a negative trend is expected to continue. However, this week seems to be heading in the relief rally direction, rather than another decline. It is interesting to see the predictions of a decline for both the indices and the VIX (indicating a week of subdued volatility), but also an expected slight rebound for BTC. Over the past few weeks Bitcoin’s decline has been highly correlated to the decline of the major market indices. Let’s see if the correlation breaks this week.

Given that the week is starting to look like a relief rally week, our iron condors are a bit wider, but the puts are likely to get hurt. If you already bought puts make sure to place stop-loss orders on them. We will carry on the trade throughout the day and see how it plays out tomorrow.

How did we trade this?

For the record I expressed some doubt in these prediction numbers, but as I’ve learned time and time again in this survey - don’t go against the BASON :) Even if it’s wrong, I’d rather follow it and be wrong a few times, then go against it and miss a good return.

As per our predictions, we traded 10 SPY 24/06 iron condors, ranging from 363/364 to 378/379 for $540 immediate gain.

In addition, we bought one SPY 379 24/06 put for $7.35 per contract. Currently a losing position.

Similar play for DIA 24/06, where we traded the following iron condor: 297/298 to 307/308 (10 contracts) for $450 immediate gain, and one DIA 24/06 put at 308 bought for $5.6.

If the market continues to rally, we will have our second losing week in Q2. If it reverses, we are banking another decent weekly return.

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.

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Oraclum's predictions

Predictions for Friday, June 24th 2022