Predictions for Friday, March 04th 2022

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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, March 04th 2022 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.

Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators and 2 stocks this week is the following:

It should be back to normal this week, without major last-minute disruptions like last Thursday. We estimated a careful rebound (much of which already happened yesterday). The BASON suggests higher values for S&P, Dow, AAPL, TSLA, and even a rebound in the 10year T-bill yields which have dropped 20% since the start of the war in Ukraine (a consequence of increased bond buying by big institutional investors - remember, bond prices go up - due to more bond buying - so yields go down). This trend should slightly reverse itself by the end of the week.

In terms of the options strategy, we sold 10 425/426 to 443/443 SPY 04/03 contracts (the iron condor), and got an immediate $460 (10 contracts * 0.46 price * 100 shares). If we fall outside the condor, we lose $540 (there is a 30% stop-loss in place to limit this to $160).

We also bought 1 SPY 04/03 call for $786, acting as a hedge in case SPY breaks the upper boundary. If it does, we stand to at least double that amount. This is, as usual, a purely directional bet with its standard stop-loss order, this time also at 30%.

Finally, we got the AAPL iron condor as well, selling 10 contracts of 160/162.5 to 170/172.5 AAPL 03/04 for $420 immediate gain.

Our expected gain is around $1300 if we hit the target, and about $1100 if SPY overshoots but AAPL doesn’t. The losses are limited to $615 ($235 from SPY call + 160 from iron condor + $220 from AAPL), and this only gets realized if the markets drop by >3% today or tomorrow.

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.

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