Predictions for Friday, November 12th 2021
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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier), for Friday, November 12th 2021 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.
Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators this week is the following:
We’re anticipating an increase in the 10-year yield (already jumped 8% yesterday after the inflation report), and a slight decrease of both the Dow and the S&P. This already started on Tuesday and continued into Wednesday, so we’re basically expecting a rebound from the Wednesday lows by Friday, but probably not back to the Monday highs. BTC, on the other hand, should continue its ascent that started already on Monday.
As per these predictions, we again used the usual iron condor for the SPY 12/11, at 462/463 to 471/472, selling 10 contracts for an immediate $400 gain. We get to keep the $400 if the price remains within this narrow corridor upon expiry on Friday.
In addition to this we usually buy SPY calls for an expected upward move, meaning that this time we should be buying puts. But since the market has already reached its weekly bottom yesterday (as per our predictions), it wouldn’t make sense to buy a put at this time. We’ve followed our prediction of a rebound and bought an in-the-money SPY 12/11 call at $460 strike, so we’ll see where it takes us. We could have also sold a call at, say, 475 (so, a bet that the SPY doesn’t reach 475 by the end of the week), but this offers too little gain for way too much risk. It’s not really a good hedge.
The stock predictions are all predicting a lower value for Friday than it was on Tuesday. Just like the S&P and the Dow, the bottoms for these stocks were already reached yesterday, so by Friday we’re expecting them to rebound close to these levels.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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