Predictions for Friday, November 19th 2021
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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier if they leave their email), for Friday, November 19th 2021 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.
Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators this week is the following:
We’re expecting the S&P and the Dow to bounce back by Friday and end up higher than their Tuesday opens. It started well on Tuesday, but then it took a bit of a pullback on Wednesday, ending up close to where we started the week.
However, we’re confident the S&P500 will end up higher, and have backed this up with 2 SPY 19/11 calls at 462 strike (break-even after 468), with an estimated profitability between $400 and $1000 if it stays within our limits.
As always, we used the usual iron condor for the SPY 19/11, at 466/467 to 474/475, selling 10 contracts for an immediate $400 gain. We get to keep the $400 if the price remains within this narrow corridor upon expiry on Friday.
If SPY breaks over 475, we lose $600 from the iron condor but stand to get at least $1200 from the calls. If SPY breaks the downward confidence interval, we lose on both strategies. This - wrong direction and breaking the intervals - never happened thus far.
The stock predictions this time are very bold on seeing TSLA go down, and the rest going slightly higher. AAPL already made good ground yesterday, as did GME and AMC, but TSLA went up, not down. I guess people were spooked by Musk’s selling spree that’s maybe over by now. Or maybe it isn’t? Will be very interesting to watch.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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